Michael King’s Cutty Tendencies Could Make Him Perfect Fit on North Side

Ed. note: I paused this when Bob Nightengale reported that the Cubs were finalizing a multiyear deal with Zac Gallen worth $22 million annually, but CI learned that no deal has been reached and that the Cubs might not be as heavily involved as indicated. Nightengale subsequently amended his report to say the Cubs “are HOPEFUL of finalizing an agreement” with Gallen, and Jeff Passan reported that Gallen is not close to a deal with anyone.


At the risk of banging the Michael King drum too loudly after already featuring him in another post from earlier today, I wanted to look more at why he is a perfect fit for what the Cubs do. CI has been told that Jed Hoyer is infatuated with Japanese fireballer Tatsuya Imai, who will likely be a priority because his posting window closes on January 2, but King appears to be a very close second when it comes to their offseason wishlist. Though his fastball doesn’t jump off the page, it’s the way King manipulates it and the rest of his pitches that makes him so intriguing.

As Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski explained during a recent segment, the 30-year-old righty’s tendency to cut the four-seam allows him to seam-shift his way into other plus pitches.

“So that element of cut, what it allows you to do — we’re understanding so much about how air flow around the baseball affects the ball’s movement,” Brozdowski explained. “We’re getting to the point where you can take a pitcher like Michael King and go, ‘Okay, you cut your fastball: check there. So as a result of that, we can get you to five or six pitch types that are all exceptionally good in terms of how they move.'”

That’s particularly true of King’s changeup, which has been among the most valuable in baseball over the last three years. King has generated a pitch value of 8.4 runs on his offspeed pitch, good for ninth overall, and his 3.42 runs per 100 pitches is the best in MLB by over half a run in that span. He’s also got a filthy sinker, a sweeper, and a slider that can all get outs.

This profile fits really well with an organization that has long prioritized pitch metrics other than pure velocity. Cade Horton is the only current Cubs starter who throws harder than 94 mph, but most of them throw at least five different pitch types. That might seem like a given, but Brozdowski cited information from MLB.com’s David Adler to show how the number of starters throwing that many pitches has grown significantly over the last several seasons.

In 2019, only 188 starting pitchers threw five or more pitch types; that was up to 253 this past season, a jump of more than two starters per team on average. Cubs minor league pitchers cut their fastballs more than any other organization, so it stands to reason that we’ll see that trend continue at the highest level even if King isn’t part of it. And depending on what happens with all this Gallen stuff, he might not be.

My personal conspiracy theory is that the Gallen news was part of a strategy to sign Imai. Both of them are Scott Boras clients, so the Cubs could be doing the agent a solid by getting the other teams still in contention for Gallen’s services to up their offers. Or, and this would be both hilarious and perfectly fitting, what if the very specific deal of $22 million per year that Nightengale reported was actually the Cubs’ offer to King?

After all, Brozdowski did close his analysis by saying that King is expected to get around $88 million for four years. Whatever ends up happening, this has already been an entertaining Saturday.