Nico Hoerner Should Only Get Better as He Enters Final Year of Extension
Nico Hoerner nearly won the NL batting title while posting a career-high 109 wRC+ and capturing his second Gold Glove at second base. Now imagine what he could have done if his surgically repaired right arm had been at full strength. Recovery from offseason flexor tendon surgery forced Hoerner to avoid throwing almost entirely during his pregame work in the first half of the season, and really cutting throws loose in games caused him pain.
Reduced arm strength meant he had to be even better with his positioning and jumps, creating better angles to make clean plays and have time to throw out runners. The result was an MLB-leading 17 defensive runs saved and 14 outs above average; no other second baseman had more than 12 and 10, respectively. Hoerner was far and away the best defender at his position, and there’s reason to believe he can be even better next season.
“[The pitchers I spoke with] felt like another offseason after it is really when things start to get synced up,” Hoerner explained. “So I’m excited to get into a throwing program, start up in a couple of weeks, and just really have a full time to get that under myself and not just be able to be a second baseman, but really be the best athlete that I can be.”
Does anyone else remember all the talk last winter about how the Cubs needed to trade Hoerner to accommodate Matt Shaw at second? Also, how some of us pushed back strenuously against that notion because Hoerner is and has been the Cubs’ most complete player over the past few years? While he may still be underrated due to the lack of loud tools, Hoerner is no longer flying below the radar of the general consciousness.
Since he debuted in 2019, his 20.0 fWAR is the highest mark of any Cubs player, easily surpassing Ian Happ’s 17.8 over 701 more plate appearances. Hoerner’s 131 steals are the most on the team in that time, with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 64 coming in second. This is a topic I’ve covered separately, but how damning an indictment is that of the Cubs’ previous baserunning strategy and/or acumen?
Hoerner does just about everything well, other than power. His .102 ISO is the lowest among any Cubs with at least 1,000 PAs over the last seven seasons, and it’s roughly 60 points below the league average over that same span. He’s a throwback in that regard, as even his positional peers have averaged a .142 ISO since 2019. The good news is that the Cubs aren’t sitting around waiting for his power to develop, which should mean working to add more pop around him in the lineup.
We’re talking about the consummate “glue guy,” a player whose daily performance is akin to that of a Swiss watch. You know Hoerner is going to keep ticking along smoothly regardless of the situation or opponent, helping to set the table and make his teammates better as a result. The big question now is whether the Cubs see fit to reward that consistency with another extension.
Hoerner inked a three-year, $35 million deal prior to the 2024 season that covered two arbitration years and what would have been his first year of free agency. If we use the accepted value of around $9 million for every incremental win, he’s already been worth about $78 million and still has another year left. Or should I say he’s only got another year left? Hoerner is currently set to be a free agent in 2027, ahead of his age-30 season, which presents some interesting dynamics.
The most obvious issue is that he’ll have vastly outperformed an extension that seemed light even at the time, so negotiating something new won’t be easy. Jed Hoyer loathes overpaying for past performance, but Hoerner is already playing under an absurdly club-friendly deal. We’re not talking about a Boras Corp. situation or anything, but the folks at Apex are going to need to be shown the money over much longer than a three-year stretch.
Then you’ve got the likely work stoppage in 2027, a smoldering fire onto which a healthy splash of high-octane gasoline was just tossed when the Dodgers won their second straight World Series and third since 2020. While it would be much easier for all the reluctant billionaires to simply pump more money into their teams rather than treating them like passive investments, it seems far more likely they’ll cry poor and stump for a hard salary cap.
That uncertainty could lead the Cubs and other teams to pull back the reins on making financial commitments that stretch well into the future. I mean, it absolutely will lead to that for a majority of teams, it’s just a matter of the extent. Even so, Hoerner is the kind of player who should be relatively future-proof. We’re not talking about a monster deal of 10-plus years and $300 million, so future payroll parameters aren’t going to be much of an issue.
And since he won’t turn 30 until May of ’27, we’re talking about what should be several more years of prime performance. What’s more, playing second base means the age-performance curve is not quite as steep as it might have been had he remained on the left side of the diamond. Hoerner should be right there behind PCA when it comes to prioritizing offseason extensions, but I do have concerns about the two sides being able to reach amenable terms.
Either way, you can expect this to be a big topic of discussion throughout the offseason.
