Let’s Discuss How Cubs Will Navigate Shōta Imanaga’s Complicated Option Situation

A year ago, everyone would have agreed that the Cubs would jump on the opportunity to exercise their three-year, $57 million option on Shōta Imanaga this offseason. The deal he signed prior to the 2024 season guaranteed him the potential to earn $53 million over four years, but the actual value is contingent upon several potential decisions by both club and player. The first of those will come with the official start of the offseason, and it could set in motion a series of dominoes.

The cleanest and simplest path forward would be for the Cubs to exercise their club option, thus guaranteeing Imanaga $80 million over five years. Having a high-end lefty starter at just $16 million AAV in today’s economy is a steal, right? Well, yeah, but the front office has to have some really tough conversations about what Imanaga is going to be moving forward. His performance dropped off markedly this season to the point that he couldn’t be counted on to make a second start in the NLDS and probably shouldn’t have been counted on to make the first.

Another big wrinkle here, one I neglected to include in an earlier version of this post, is that the Cubs picking up either this three-year option or a two-year option after next season (more below) triggers a full no-trade clause. That’s a big factor factor because it further reduces whatever flexibility the team has. If they end up stuck on what to do, this could be what tips the choice.

Imanaga also just turned 32 in September, which isn’t a harbinger of good things. While we’ve seen plenty of pitchers continue to put up good numbers well into their 30s, Imanaga’s 91 mph fastball doesn’t project to age as well as others. Then there’s the fact that his .219 BABIP against suggests his numbers should have been far worse than they actually were. That’s a big gamble, even for a team that should be far more willing and able to absorb a rough contract here or there.

So let’s say the Cubs don’t pick up the option. What then? Well, Imanaga has a $15 million player option for 2026, after which the process starts over again. If he picks it up, the Cubs have another chance to lock him in for two years and $42 million. And if they decline that, Imanaga can again trigger another $15 million option that would get him to his original guarantee of four years and $53 million. That’s where things start to get tricky.

In the event that the ball is placed in Imanaga’s court, it becomes a matter of whether he can land more than the $30 million he’ll be guaranteed over the next two years. I’d say the chances of that are pretty good in a vacuum, but there’s another complicating factor. Should he decline his option, the Cubs would likely extend him a qualifying offer ($22.025M for 2026) that would hamper his value on the open market.

Then there’s the matter of total value vs. AAV and which of those Imanaga prefers. My guess is that he could get more on the former and less on the latter than what he’d be guaranteed with the Cubs, which would probably lead him to stay for now. Assuming his aging curve is on the steep side, he might look to max out the next two years before heading home to finish his career back in Japan.

The trickiest outcome would come after the 2026 season if Imanaga is still in Chicago and both parties decline their options. I guess it’s less tricky than amorphous, as those decisions would coincide with the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. Everyone is prepping for a pitched battle over the CBA that will lead to a work stoppage, and teams are already pulling back on the financial reins in anticipation.

As such, I believe the Cubs will want to avoid the potential eventuality of dealing with such an open-ended question. With that in mind, let’s look again at the various scenarios before breaking down what is most likely to happen:

• Cubs exercise three-year, $57M option for 2026-28
• Cubs decline option, Imanaga declines option
  • Cubs extend QO, Imanaga accepts
  • Cubs extend QO, Imanaga rejects
• Cubs decline option, Imanaga exercises $15M player option for ’26
  • Cubs pick up two-year, $42M option for 2027-28
  • Cubs decline two-year option, Imanaga exercises $15M player option for ’27
  • Cubs decline two-year option, Imanaga declines option
    • This is where things get really weird
    • Including a second bullet because my 11th grade English teacher taught that you always needed at least two

Simple, right?

Though I remain open to the idea that Jed Hoyer could be given more resources to flex his front office muscle, I just don’t see that being the case. And if it is, he may need the help of a spotter to help with both the early reps and those down the road. What I’m saying is that I think the Cubs will value that extra $27 million (or more) — and whatever theoretical value is tied up in an NTC — rather than accepting the fact that they might have to spend through some or all of the remainder of Imanaga’s deal.

As such, I believe they will decline their first club option and put the decision in Imanaga’s hands. If he exercises his option, his $15 million salary is far from prohibitive. If he chooses free agency, the Cubs tag him with a QO and pick up a free draft pick when he signs elsewhere. I tend to think he’ll opt in, both to secure what should be a higher AAV and to rebuild his value. While the QO would pay him about 50% more for next season, a poor performance could crush his free agency with a lockout/strike looming.

Opting in would give the Cubs control once more, at which point it’ll come down to whether or not Imanaga bounces back in 2026. Since we have no way of knowing for certain how that will play out, we’ll just stick with the immediate future for now.

As I wrap this up, I want to reiterate how wild it is that we’re even having to discuss these scenarios. Had the club option been in play a year ago, I have to imagine the Cubs would have jumped on it. But based on what we know about how they operate and how Imanaga is expected to perform in the future, not to mention the impending work stoppage, the club will likely opt to reduce as many obligations as possible.

Imanaga will almost certainly still be around for at least one more season on the North Side, I just can’t see him sticking for another three. Now watch them jump on that option immediately.