Here’s How Playoff Rotation Could Look Without Cade Horton
Craig Counsell has remained coy about his starting rotation, and for good reason. Not only are things in flux with the loss of Cade Horton, who has been placed on the 15-day IL with a fractured rib, but the manager wants to give the Padres as little time as possible to prepare for their Wild Card matchups. I want to look at a few different scenarios that could play out, but let’s first circle back to Horton briefly.
From the way the Rookie of the Year candidate described it over the weekend, this injury was almost inevitable.
“I think it was just a perfect storm, unfortunately,” Horton told reporters. “There wasn’t one pitch, there wasn’t one cough. I think it was just the combination of fatigue, cough, then I go out and try to throw 98 and it just gives out. I don’t think there was any protecting it, I think it was just kind of a matter of when.”
That lends a little credence to the Cubs’ handling of him during the second half, like when he was pulled after five innings despite having a no-hitter going. Horton pitched 118 MLB innings this season, four fewer than he’d tallied over his first two seasons as a professional. He only threw 34.1 innings last season and fewer than 60 in college, so the lack of chronic workload may have gotten to him.
Though he can be activated by Game 5 of the NLDS, the Cubs aren’t going to have him on their roster should they get past the Padres. Besides, all the focus needs to be on who takes the bump for the next two or three games. Expect Counsell to be aggressive when it comes to reaching the magic number of 54 outs, and all bets are off if they need to reach 81 in the series.
That could mean using an opener, though I don’t think Counsell will do so if he opts to start Matthew Boyd in Game 1. He’s coming off a decent start and will be on an extra day of rest on Tuesday, plus the Padres are in the bottom half of MLB with a 96 wRC+ against lefties. And while Boyd has pitched in relief before, he’s never been the bulk man behind an opener. I’d suspect Counsell will have a long man ready to go should Boyd falter.
Ed. note: Just after this was published, the Cubs named Boyd the Game 1 starter.
Game 2 is where things get a little tricky. The simple solution is to start Shōta Imanaga on five days’ rest, but I think they’ll opt to push him back to Thursday’s game if it’s necessary. His very serious trouble with giving up too many homers could be mitigated by getting a little extra rest, as he’s been much better this season when pitching with six or more days between starts.
That means either Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea on Wednesday, with the former being ruled out because he just pitched on Saturday. Rea is the team’s hottest pitcher right now and he’d be on regular rest, plus he’s served as the bulk man on two different occasions this season. Between June 5 at Washington and September 7 against the Nats at Wrigley, Rea went 10.2 innings with one run allowed. Not a great opponent, to be sure, but he’s clearly comfortable with the role.
Drew Pomeranz opened for Rea in both of those aforementioned games and has made two other “starts” for the Cubs this season, so he understands the assignment. He’s also a lefty, and we noted earlier that the Padres aren’t great against southpaws, who has a 0.96 ERA with 15 strikeouts and two walks over 9.1 innings in his last 10 appearances (one open). Michael Soroka is another strong possibility to open a game, particularly since most of his career appearances have been starts, but I think they’d rather use him as something of a piggyback for Boyd and/or other starters.
That would leave Game 3 for either Imanaga or Taillon, and I think the lefty gets the edge if the game is necessary. However, I believe he’ll have such a short leash that Taillon could even be called upon to work in relief. Again, it’s all about finding ways to reach 27 outs per game. A more likely scenario would see the Cubs using Taillon in Game 1 of the divisional series — should they get there, of course — as Boyd would be on just three days’ rest.
So I’d like to see Boyd/Soroka on Tuesday, Pomeranz/Rea on Wednesday, and Imanaga on Thursday, though it’ll probably be Boyd, Imanaga, Taillon because that makes the most sense from a traditional standpoint. Any high-leverage late innings will be taken by Caleb Thielbar and Brad Keller, with Andrew Kittredge and possibly Daniel Palencia factoring as well. There isn’t likely to be a set closer, so it’ll be a matter of who makes the most sense for specific situations. The best possible situation would be to not need a closer at all because the Cubs hung a bunch of runs on the Padres.
Yeah, I like that plan a lot.
