Quantifying Hope Special Edition: Magic Number at 2 Heading into Final Weekend

This weekly column officially ended when the Cubs clinched a playoff berth, but losing six of seven games since then means they’re still very much fighting for position. They have a two-game lead on the Padres for the top spot in the Wild Card round and that matchup is locked in, so these next three games will determine who hosts the series. The Cubs control their own destiny and can secure home field with two wins over the hapless Cardinals, but their poor play of late means no matchup can be overlooked.

While it helps that the Padres are hosting the Diamondbacks, who still have a shot at the final playoff spot, that series could become academic immediately. Arizona has lost two in a row to fall two games behind the Mets, so they will fall out of contention with another loss and a New York win. Gosh, it sure would have been nice for the Cubs to have won just one game in Cincinnati.

Or, hey, they could have not given up 20 runs in three games to the Mets. Tuesday’s opener was bad because the bullpen fell apart after Cade Horton was pulled early, but seeing Shōta Imanaga tagged for eight runs was even more depressing. At least there was hope that Horton’s removal was merely precautionary, but let’s put in a pin in that for just a moment. It wasn’t just that Imanaga gave up a pair of homers, it was that the Mets were hammering everything he threw.

The lefty surrendered 11 batted balls at 101+ exit velocities, and he was lucky that only six of them fell for hits. Were it not for spectacular diving plays by Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong, two more would have gone for extra bases. Over his last 12 starts, Imanaga has a 5.17 ERA with 20 homers allowed over 69.2 innings. That is absolutely not going to work in a playoff game, so the Cubs need to seriously consider using him only as a last resort.

That calculus changes based on what happens with Horton, whose outlook may not be nearly as bright as what some took from Craig Counsell‘s update on Thursday. Though Horton said he’s optimistic about taking the bump when it’s his turn, Counsell noted that an MRI revealed “areas of concern” in the righty’s ribs. He also said the Cubs would be seeking additional input from a third-party doctor, which doesn’t typically portend good things.

Horton is set to play catch in the outfield on Friday, which could determine whether and when he’ll be able to return. Maybe there really is optimism about his availability, but the Cubs almost always slow-play this stuff. Remember when Kyle Tucker was supposedly available off the bench the weekend after tweaking his calf? Yeah, that was never the case.

The Cubs can still beat the Padres even without Horton taking the bump, but losing him will cost them dearly when it comes to their odds of success. He’s easily their best pitcher right now, and continuing his second-half dominance offers the best shot at picking up a win. At this point, Jameson Taillon is next in line for that Game 1 start. Even though Matthew Boyd looked great the last time out, it’s hard to put much faith in his performance since the break.

Anyway, keep mustering all the good mojo you can because the Cubs are going to need it.