Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/17/25): Busch Leads Off, Suzuki Returns, Boyd Starting Clinch Day

We hold these truths to be self-evident: That the Cubs can clinch a playoff berth today, and that Cade Horton is superior to Paul Skenes. The Cubs’ magic number stood at two prior to yesterday’s win, which would normally have meant that their win and a loss from one of the teams trailing in the Wild Card standings meant clinching a playoff berth. However, the Diamondbacks and Giants playing each other meant a scenario in which the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and one of those two NL West teams above could all finish with 87 wins.

The Diamondbacks won last night, pushing the Giants 12 games behind the Cubs with 11 left to play; the Reds are likewise 12 behind and can’t catch the North Siders. But the Snakes are now only 10.5 back with just 10 games left on their slate. So while them losing to the Giants this afternoon would allow the Cubs to celebrate on their flight to Cincinnati, or perhaps in the team hotel, it’d be a lot cooler to do the job themselves.

They got a step closer to both the playoffs themselves and legitimate contention by beating the best pitcher in baseball behind their Rookie of the Year candidate. Michael Busch hit a leadoff homer for just the second run Skenes has allowed in the 1st inning of 31 starts this season, then a Pete Crow-Armstrong knock made it the first time in Skenes’ MLB career that he has allowed a crooked number in the 1st.

The Cubs also forced Skenes to throw a career-high 33 pitches in the opening frame, helped in part by two walks. He had only walked four batters in the 1st inning across 30 previous starts, which is somewhat about Skenes being a little off and more about the Cubs having a solid approach. Getting contributions from two hitters who’d been struggling in Busch and PCA bodes very well for the postseason.

Now they need a similar resurgence from Matthew Boyd, who has given up 19 earned runs on 30 hits over his last five starts. I won’t bore you further with talk about his workload or anything, but just know I’m still concerned about how it’s impacting his performance. Getting a good start today would help to allay those fears, especially since he’s still got two starts left this season.

Unless the Cubs opt to skip his next turn, which would come against the Mets on an extra day of rest. While it might sound easier to bump him from his final start of the season against the Cardinals, I’m not a fan of having a guy sit for 8-10 days. That could be the case if Horton rightfully takes the bump in the first or second Wild Card game. The rookie has established himself as his team’s best pitcher, but it might be smarter to sandwich him between lefties with Shōta Imanaga going in Game 1.

My preference would be for bullpen games or spot starts on the next two Sundays against the Reds and Cards. That would give both pitchers two extra days of rest between these starts and their next ones, plus more rest ahead of the postseason. Of course, the Cubs have to be considerate of their Wild Card seeding, as they need to maintain what is now a five-game lead on the Padres. If all goes well, that won’t matter by the time the Cards come to town.

Having the offense humming will help as well, allowing Craig Counsell to turn the ball over to one of several long relievers in his bullpen. That’s another option to keep Horton and Boyd rested, but the key is jumping out to big leads and letting the pitchers coast either way. Even though they have only scored four runs in each of the first two games in Pittsburgh, it feels like much more because the Cubs have put constant pressure on two of the Pirates’ best arms.

They’ll try to do the same in the series finale behind Busch at first, Nico Hoerner and his .301 average at second, and Happ in left. Moisés Ballesteros is the DH, Seiya Suzuki returns to the lineup in right after being out for several days with an illness, and Crow-Armstrong is in center. Dansby Swanson is at short, Reese McGuire is the catcher, and Matt Shaw is at third.

I write at least 150 of these game preview posts each season, and I’m pretty sure this is the first time Counsell has ever gotten his lineup out ahead of his opposing manager three times in a row. Color me gobsmacked.

Their opponent this afternoon is 27-year-old Johan Oviedo, who is making his seventh start of the season after missing all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. There aren’t many pitchers in the game whose physical stature rivals Skenes, but Oviedo is one of the few at 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds. His 95 mph and other pitches play up due to his 7.4-foot extension, but he’s always had a little trouble commanding the zone. That’s been the case so far, as evidenced by a career-worst 13% walk rate.

Oviedo is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher, allowing contact in the air almost 70% of the time. He’s able to mitigate that by staying away from barrels at a very high rate, so beating him is often a matter of death by a thousand cuts. I would really like to see the Cubs remain patient at the plate and aggressive on the bases to force Oviedo to work in this one.

His splits reveal a looming correction in his performance against left-handed hitters, who are slashing just .111/.226/.133 with a .182 wOBA on an unsustainably low .156 BABIP so far. He’s pitched to virtually even splits over his career and we’re looking at such a small sample in 2025 that something is going to have to shift in a big way. Look for Busch and PCA to stay hot, with Happ making noise as well.

Oviedo is certainly capable of postponing the Cubs’ celebration, especially if he figures out the slider that hasn’t come along yet. He throws it at 87 mph with a little more glove-side than most, then he’s got a curve at 78 that has a very similar movement profile. When they’re working, he can cruise by throwing the slider more to righties and the curve to lefties. This guy isn’t a pushover by any means, I just think he’s due for correction and the Cubs are ready to seize the moment.

First pitch is at 11:35pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Last one with the Buccos.

Watch today’s game on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/B8U8PB4Ghu

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 17, 2025