Craig Counsell Should Probably Stop Batting Michael Busch Leadoff
Michael Busch has been one of the Cubs’ best hitters this season, touting a 133 wRC+ that is second only to Kyle Tucker‘s 136 as of this publication. Busch is third on the team with 25 homers, making him just the sixth Cubs first baseman since 1974 to reach that mark. No, Frank Schwindel is not on the list. But, just like the rest of his team, Busch did most of his damage in the first half before losing his way in August.
Though he homered in Thursday’s loss, only the team’s third dinger in the last four games, Busch and the offense as a whole have barely been treading water for weeks now.
“Look, we’ve gotta score more,” Counsell admitted to reporters before heading to Denver. “I mean, we scored two, three, and three, and maybe squeak out a game in that, but you’re gonna have to pitch really good to win a game…scoring that many runs. We didn’t help our pitching staff out enough by getting some runs on the board.”
I want to be very clear that it’s on the players to perform at the end of the day, but the manager’s job is to make every effort to put those players in the best positions to succeed. When it comes to Busch getting back to hitting at an elite level, Counsell may want to stop batting him in the leadoff spot. The experiment that started out well in mid-July appears to have run its course and may now be actively hurting the team.
Busch mashed two homers in his first three games as a leadoff hitter, the first of which came on the second pitch of the game against the Yankees on July 13. He then went yard on the first pitch of the game in Boston six days later. There have been five homers, all out of the top spot in the lineup, but Busch’s overall production has not been in keeping with an offensive tone setter.
Over 131 plate appearances in the No. 1 spot, Busch is slashing .207/.260/.413 with an 86 wRC+ that sits well below his season mark. Those are not good numbers even without comparison, but they are demonstrably worse than he’s produced at any other spot in the order with more than 20 plate appearances. And when you consider that Busch is only facing right-handed pitchers in that top split, things start to look really bleak.
1st – 131 PAs, .207/.260/.413, 86 wRC+
4th – 169 PAs, .272/.367/.476, 139 wRC+
5th – 42 PAs, .324/.405/.595, 179 wRC+
6th – 91 PAs, .329/.396/.634, 185 wRC+
7th – 29 PAs, .250.379/.542, 158 wRC+
Even without a wealth of viable alternatives, it’s looking more and more like malpractice to keep running Busch out there. Not only has he failed to produce well as a leadoff hitter, but he’s been far better when batting in the middle of the order. It’s like robbing Peter and then running off to Sodom with the money instead of paying Paul. This isn’t just about having a better table-setter, it’s about helping Busch succeed.
As for his replacement, might I suggest Ian Happ? I know that’ll anger the legions of fans who think Happ is bad, but his 100 wRC+ over 394 PAs would be an improvement. Not to mention being a switch-hitter provides more continuity at the top. Nico Hoerner has done well over 43 PAs, though we have to take his 106 wRC+ with a grain of salt because he’s only facing lefties.
While I appreciate Counsell’s willingness to be patient rather than reactively shuffling his lineup when things don’t go well, I’d say we’re to the point where we can start calling him stubborn. Perhaps even to a fault, as it almost feels like he’s saying, “I don’t care if it’s broke, I’m still not fixing it.” Again, the players are wholly complicit in an offensive downturn that has seen the Cubs go from exciting to maddening over the last several weeks.
That’s the real rub here, as we’re not just talking about one or two bad games. The Cubs have scored three or fewer runs in 16 of their 26 games this month, just two fewer than they had across 50 games in June and July. They are 3-13 in those low-scoring games, six of which have been one-run affairs, and they’re 10-0 when they score four or more. Moving Busch down a few spots probably doesn’t trigger wins in all of those close ones, but the margins are slim enough that it wouldn’t take a big change to shift the record significantly.
There isn’t a better place to get right than Coors Field, I just hope the favorable park factors don’t mask issues that have become all too apparent here in the second half.
