Pinch-Hitting Justin Turner for Owen Caissie Was Right Move

Look, I didn’t like the move when it happened and was quick to share as much with a similarly frustrated party via text. My immediate thought was that Craig Counsell was pulling a lever almost out of spite in an attempt to make himself look better after his “Owen Caissie isn’t good enough to get playing time on this team” comments. That’s pretty silly, of course, but it does feel at times as though managers — not just Counsell — do things that seem contrarian because they’ve got a gut feeling or even just because going against the grain makes them feel smart.

What I’m saying is that some people like the smell of their own farts.

As crass and meatballish as that criticism may be, it’s not entirely without merit. I mean, look at how many times the Cubs have stacked left-handed hitters, many of whom have been struggling for a while now, against righty pitchers with significant reverse platoon splits. It happened again in Tuesday’s doubleheader nightcap, with Brandon Woodruff on the mound for the Brewers and three lefty batters in the top four of the order.

And just in case someone feels the need to wellakshully that point, Ian Happ bats lefty against righties.

Regardless, any of my complaints about failing to play the matchup properly went for naught as four of the Cubs’ five hits against Woodruff were from lefties. The two biggest of those came in the 2nd inning, as Caissie singled home Nico Hoerner and then used his 50-grade speed to score on a Michael Busch double. Busch was initially credited with a triple, but the scoring was adjusted later in the game.

While the reverse-split thing is a little esoteric, we got a whole ‘nother level of tried-and-true baseball logic in the 5th inning. That’s when southpaw Aaron Ashby — who I kept thinking was way too old to still be playing because I was thinking of his uncle, Andy Ashby, who is also Cal Quantrill‘s father-in-law — came on in relief, prompting Counsell to bat Justin Turner for Caissie.

Per Elias, this was the first ginger-for-ginger swap in a game since Dashiell Armstrong hit for Weeb “Slapper” Schmidt on June 2, 1906 with the Brooklyn Superbas. It was the first time in baseball history — all levels, all time — that one redhead was substituted for another while a third called the game on TV. I made all of that up, but it sure sounds like it could be true. Anywho…

The Cubs had just scored an insurance run to go up 3-1 and had men on second and third with two outs in the 5th inning. Another hit would score at least one more run, probably two since Nico Hoerner was on second and would be moving on anything, so going with a righty batter made sense. Of course, Ashby is himself a reverse-split guy who holds right-handed hitters to much lower numbers across the board. Now we’ve got the flip-side of my frustration with loading up lefty batters against righty starters.

Except for the fact that Turner has posted almost identical splits over the course of his career and has been markedly better against lefties this season. Add in Caissie’s very stark splits this season in Iowa, and things start to get clearer. The situation matters too, as this wasn’t just any regular-season game. Counsell was understandably viewing it as a playoff contest, so he was pulling levers in an attempt to maximize his team’s advantage.

Though Turner grounded out to end the inning with no further damage done, inserting Willi Castro in right ended up having an outsized impact. With the Cubs now up 4-1 in the top of the 7th, the Brewers had runners at the corners with one out. Sal Frelick flied out to Castro, who fired a seed to Carson Kelly to nail Brice Turang at home for an inning-ending double play. The Brewers never threatened again and the Cubs swept the day-night doubleheader.

Those who still disagree with the move may point to my logic as being based on the result of the game, but I can assure you that’s not the case. If I were engaging in more facile analysis, Turner’s failure in the moment would have led me to maintain my initial negative reaction. There are meatier counterpoints, though, like the notion that a subsequent at-bat for Caissie’s vacated spot might have come against a righty.

The hindsight rebuttal is that it didn’t happen that way, as Ashby finished out the game and faced the switch-hitting Castro from the right side. Okay then, why not have Castro bat for Caissie instead of burning Turner? After all, the versatile former Twin has hit much better against lefties this season. He’s also had only three pinch-hit plate appearances this season and 34 in seven MLB seasons. Turner has 26 such PAs this year and 284 for his career, making him a better option in that specific situation.

One other wrinkle here that I think we should acknowledge is Turner’s status as de facto team captain. He’s been the first one out of the dugout to congratulate Caissie on his hits, he had his arm around Matt Shaw when Caissie replaced the Cubs’ hottest hitter in a mildly controversial moment on Sunday, and he’s built up boatloads of goodwill and credibility over the last two decades.

There’s a ton of nuance here and it’s entirely possible that either Caissie or Castro, each of whom notched their first Cubs homer in the matinee, would have come through with a hit. But when it comes down to what made sense based on that one at-bat in that one game, Turner was the play. As a little added bonus, we could even give Counsell props for knowing Pat Murphy would try to ride Ashby out as a means of saving his bullpen.

That isn’t as much of a stretch as it might seem, since Ashby had worked multiple innings in 10 of his 25 previous appearances this season. The game was also far less important for the Brewers, who went in with an eight-game division lead and knew Woodruff wasn’t going deep as he works back from an extended absence due to shoulder surgery in late 2023. As such, there was no reason for Murphy to burn relievers during a stretch of 19 games in 18 days.

Last question: What if the Brewers had come back to win because Castro biffed that Frelick fly and the Brewers rallied? The best answer is that they didn’t, and that hypothetically revising history as a means by which to criticize a move is only going to lead to frustration. Counsell hasn’t been perfect by any stretch, and his initial stubbornness with Kyle Tucker‘s playing time rubbed me the wrong way, but I thought he handled Tuesday quite well.

Now, ask me about the skipper’s refusal to stick up for Seiya Suzuki after yet another brutal called strike and I’ll be singing a different tune.