Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/23/25): Busch Leads Off, PCA Bats Third with Tucker Absent, Rea Bump Day

If you’re reading this, I must offer my heartfelt congratulations on surviving the 24 hours or so that the Cubs fell out of first place. It was a harrowing period that can only be described as apocalypse-adjacent, but we all emerged on the other side. Well, most of us. Looks like Ozzy Osbourne just couldn’t take the Brewers’ rise to the top. RIP, Prince of Darkness.

Matthew Boyd tossed his third straight scoreless outing and fourth in his last five games to lower his ERA to 2.20 on the season. He’s riding an active streak of 23 scoreless innings and has allowed only two earned runs over his last 34 frames. That’s ace-level stuff, folks. Now the Cubs need to get a good game out of another surprise success story.

Though Colin Rea hasn’t been nearly as good as Boyd, his work as a rotation fill-in has been a huge blessing for Craig Counsell. After imploding for seven earned runs against the Mariners back on June 22, Rea has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts. Now he’s facing one of the worst offenses in baseball.

As long as we don’t get a repeat of Monday’s uncharacteristic outburst, the Cubs shouldn’t need to score double digits to win. They’ve flipped the lineup for today’s game, going with Michael Busch at first base and batting leadoff. He remains in a platoon with Justin Turner, and rightfully so, but this should be a good matchup for him. Seiya Suzuki is in right to give Kyle Tucker a break after he fouled a ball off his knee last night, and Pete Crow-Armstrong slides up to third in the order.

Carson Kelly cleans up as the DH, Ian Happ bats fifth in left, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Nico Hoerner is the second baseman. Reese McGuire is behind the plate and Matt Shaw plays third.

They don’t have an easy task with Seth Lugo on the mound in what many believe is an audition for a team that reportedly has interest in acquiring him. The 35-year-old righty is in the second season of a three-year, $45 million deal that allows him to opt out after this year. That’s a very likely scenario given how well he’s pitched, as he should be able to secure another relatively lucrative multiyear contract as a free agent.

This is Lugo’s best season as a full-time starter since converting from the bullpen back in 2023 with the Padres. Even though his strikeout rate has dropped precipitously from his days as a reliever, he’s managed to maintain a 2.94 ERA with grit and good luck. As good as his numbers have been, I’m very concerned about the potential for regression when it comes to the Cubs potentially acquiring him.

Lugo’s .244 BABIP against is nearly 40 points lower than his career average and doesn’t seem sustainable, plus his peripherals all indicate he should be doing much worse. His 4.71 xERA and 4.37 FIP tell us the ERA is a mirage, and his Statcast percentile rankings look like the Royals’ road uniforms. And not those sweet powder blues either. Other than his 67th-percentile walk rate, Lugo’s results do nothing to inspire confidence.

What he’s got going for him is a 10-pitch mix led by a sweepy curveball that he loves throwing to left-handed hitters. He favors the slurve and slider to righties, plus he’s got a slow curve and a sweeper. Lugo likes to run his sinker in on righties’ hands, which is a big part of his success against them. His splits are very pronounced as a result, with right-handed hitters slashing just .170/.230/.291 and lefties at .258/.320/.471 so far.

My big concern is how Lugo tends to give up homers in bunches, which could be good for the Cubs this afternoon but bad for his success as part of a postseason rotation. Teams that out-homer their opponents in playoff games win far more often than not, so having a guy who’s more prone to hard contact than most isn’t a great recipe for success.

This Cubs lineup can bang, so perhaps they will be able to exploit Lugo’s weakness and earn a series win. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

A Wednesday matinee for the series.

Watch today’s game on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/WVyRtlTPyn

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 23, 2025