Why Does Craig Counsell Keep Batting Dansby Swanson at Run-Producing Spots in Order?

Dansby Swanson began the season batting primarily in the five-hole, getting 119 consecutive plate appearances there once the Cubs began the domestic leg of the season. He batted .173 with a 53 wRC+ and four homers during that stretch, prompting Craig Counsell to drop him down to the eighth spot in the order following much consternation from fans. After hitting .422 with a 255 wRC+ and five homers in just 50 PAs, some of which came at seven, the manager saw fit to move his shortstop back up a little higher.

Starting on May 17 against the White Sox, Swanson has batted either fourth or fifth in all but 36 of 160 plate appearances. At the risk of leaning further into more traditional thoughts on lineup construction, it’s typically best to have a guy in those spots who is going to drive in runs. Trouble is, Swanson is slashing .148/.215/.222 with a 19 wRC+ — that’s 81% worse than the average hitter — with runners in scoring position this season.

“All year I’ve been pretty bad at it, to be honest,” Swanson said during the Cardinals series.

That’s true, but things have gotten far worse since he was moved higher in the order. We’re talking a .111/.171/.111 slash with a -29 wRC+ while batting primarily fourth or fifth, which is some kind of pejorative term far worse than abysmal. With all due respect to letting veteran performers hit their way out of it, I think we’ve seen more than enough to justify a change.

Counsell does not agree.

“It’s an important result in the game, so how we hit with runners in scoring position every night is really important to whether we win or lose,” Counsell explained on Wednesday in St. Louis. “At this point of the year, guys have, like, 80 to 90 at-bats. In our lineup, most of the guys that have played everyday have got 80 or 90 plate appearances in that situation. I think we’d all agree that’s not a very big number. But it affects the outcome of the game, so I think we focus on it a lot.

“And I understand that, and I think every player wants those at-bats to go well too, they know those are more important at-bats. So what you kind of hope in this situation is that he reverts back to how he’s been throughout his career.”

Sure enough, Swanson has an .833 OPS with a 157 wRC+ since Counsell’s vote of confidence. Never mind that we’re only talking about four plate appearances; that’s serious growth. While the manager has a point when talking about a hitter whose splits have been better with RISP over the course of his career (106 wRC+ vs. 102 w/ runners on vs. 93 w/ bases empty), there comes a point at which you can no longer wait for positive regression to take hold.

It’d be one thing if the Cubs had no one else capable of sliding up in the order, but Michael Busch has been tearing it up at the plate over the last several weeks while batting primarily in the six-hole. So even if it means having to bat two lefties in a row with Pete Crow-Armstrong at cleanup, putting Busch ahead of Swanson gives the Cubs a better lineup. Or perhaps Busch needs to take over the cleanup role and let PCA work out of his recent funk somewhere else.

That’s a little knee-jerky for sure, and it’s clear Counsell prefers as much continuity as possible in his lineups. With the exception of shifting guys around based on the pitching matchups, you can pretty much peg the order six days a week. Those Sundays can be a doozy, though. Maybe they just need to go out and get Eugenio Suarez to supply a little power and allow Swanson to move back to the bottom third for at least a little while.

In the meantime, I guess we all just have to keep bitching about where Swanson is batting. Because even if we know why Counsell is putting him there, we still don’t know why Counsell is batting him there. I fully expect this to age very poorly and for me to look like a big dummy when Swanson goes HAM in the cleanup spot the rest of the way.