Cubs Listed Among Best Fits for Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, Other Top Trade Candidates
We’re still over a month away from the trade deadline, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait for rumors to get started. Between their recent performance and the earlier loss of Justin Steele to elbow surgery, it’s been quite evident that the Cubs will need rotation help. And with the division tightening up a little bit here in the back half of June, Jed Hoyer might be looking to make a move well ahead of the deadline.
That could work in their favor, as getting out ahead of the rush could result in a lower acquisition cost. Then again, the number of teams still deciding whether to buy or sell results in limited availability. You can bet Hoyer and the front office have been keeping tabs on several potential trade targets, many of whom are listed in ESPN’s top 50 trade deadline candidates.
Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel included the Cubs among the best fits for 10 of the top 30 potential movers, and it’s reasonable to believe they’ll check in on some of the other 20 as well. Predictably, eight of those 10 are starting pitchers. The others are both third basemen, though only one of them appears to be at all possible. In all, the Cubs are connected to six of the top 10 possibilities, three of whom are Diamondbacks.
Arizona has seven players ranked among the top nine, though they are probably going to hold for a while before throwing the doors open. Let’s take a look at how ESPN’s dynamic duo laid things out.
1) Alex Bregman
The Red Sox have already made one shocking trade, so this one gets just a 10% chance. Between their offseason interest and the strong connection to Boston baseball boss Craig Breslow, the Cubs make sense in the highly unlikely event that Bregman is moved. His salary might preclude other big moves, but Hoyer might be willing to push all-in if his future in Chicago depends on winning.
We’ve touched on this one several times already, and I don’t think it makes a ton of sense for the Cubs. His velocity is great, but he doesn’t miss nearly enough bats.
This possibility was discussed in an earlier piece, so I won’t go too deep. The slugger is putting up the best numbers of his career and is only under contract through the end of the season. All that’s keeping me from loving this option is that he may lose all that pop when playing for the Cubs rather than against them. Or maybe just being in their presence means he’d be better than ever.
6) Seth Lugo
A solid performer throughout his career, Lugo would be a fine addition for a team looking to round out the back end of the rotation. The problem is that none of his peripherals support the sub-3.00 ERA, and even that insane nine-pitch mix might not be enough to help him shut down postseason lineups. The Cubs need guys who can miss bats, and that ain’t Lugo.
7) Zac Gallen
We’ve touched on this several times as well, maybe a good option if the Cubs feel they can get Gallen back to being good. The only way this really works for me is if Suárez is included.
This is a much better option as I see it. Kelly’s changeup still gets plenty of chase, and his results are right in line with where the metrics say they should be.
22) Luis Severino
Again, we’re talking about bolstering the middle of the rotation with a 3-4 type. Given the remaining two years and $47 million on his deal, I can’t see this happening.
24) Tyler Mahle
Currently on the IL with right shoulder fatigue after missing most of the last two seasons to elbow reconstruction, this feels like a very long shot. Mahle limits homers, but he relies on limiting hard contact rather than avoiding it. The Cubs are very familiar with him from his time in Cincy, so they’ve got quite a jacket on him already.
25) Zach Eflin
Have we spotted a trend yet? Eflin is yet another back-end guy who tops out in the low 90s and makes sense as rotation depth. He’s been pretty bad this year and the home run ball has really stung him, so adding him to a rotation that already includes Jameson Taillon probably isn’t the best idea. Getting through the regular season is one thing, but homers are even more important in the playoffs.
28) Walker Buehler
Here we have yet another highly suspect starter whose numbers are very disappointing across the board. The one thing Buehler has going for him should the Red Sox opt to sell is that he’s an accomplished postseason pitcher.
Other possibilities: Andrew Heaney (31); Edward Cabrera (32); Michael Soroka (43)
The Cubs have looked at Heaney previously and have faced him twice this season already. Beat the horse once more with this one. I’m probably on an island here, but I view Cabrera as a better target than Alcántara. The acquisition cost would be lower and you’re getting a guy with mid-90s velocity who can miss bats. Soroka’s 5.06 ERA is much higher than the expected stats say it should be, and his K/BB ratio is very strong. That slurve gives him a legitimate out pitch that makes up for poor results from his 94 mph fastball and sinker.
Options are plentiful, but there are very few realistic possibilities that can move the needle. Hoyer is either going to have to make a decision that could well be very painful in terms of prospect cost, or he’ll have to go the discount route and hope a change of scenery yields much better results than expected. History tells us the latter is far more likely, though being a lame duck could alter the calculus.
