Chicago Cubs Lineup (6/21/25): Kelly Catching, Bruján 3B, Horton Starting

The Cubs dropped the first game in the series because the bullpen, which has been very good for several weeks now, gave up seven earned runs. Matthew Boyd had another strong start, but had to leave the game after suffering a bruised shoulder while snagging a 105 mph comebacker. Assuming Shota Imanaga bounced back well from his Triple-A rehab start Friday night, the Cubs can stretch the rotation a little to give Boyd a little more time to recover.

One pitcher who may not be given any more time is Génesis Cabrera, who has given up runs in five of his last six appearances after three scoreless outings to begin his Cubs tenure. He’s allowed four homers out of 10 hits, and has just five strikeouts in 5.1 innings over the rough patch. With Imanaga and Porter Hodge due back soon, not to mention Eli Morgan, Génesis looks more like Exodus.

Cade Horton is getting the start on Saturday and looks like a lock to remain with the big club as he continues to settle into his rookie campaign. He’s 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 29 strikeouts to just eight walks over 36.1 innings so far, proving he can handle himself at the highest level. You’d like to see more strikeouts and fewer hits allowed, but Horton has gotten lots of grounders to help eliminate some of those baserunners.

There’s been a good deal of concern about the offense lately, which will happen when runs are coming at more of a premium. As much as I know people don’t like to hear about bad luck, that’s a lot of what’s hurting the Cubs over the last month. Their 36 homers and .175 ISO are tied for fifth in MLB, and their .413 slugging is 11th, but their .271 BABIP is 29th. We saw that when they lined into a pair of unassisted double plays at first base on Friday.

I’m not chalking it all up to the baseball gods, but this appears to be one of those weird stretches that come up every once in a while. Sticking to the process should see things even back out before long. Ian Happ leads off in left, Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, and Pete Crow-Armstrong cleans up in center. Dansby Swanson is at short, Michael Busch plays first, Carson Kelly is the catcher, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Vidal Bruján gets a rare start at third.

They’re facing 26-year-old righty Emerson Hancock, another in the cavalcade of young arms the Mariners have developed over the last few years. The No. 6 overall pick out of Georgia in 2020, Hancock moved quickly through the system and debuted in 2023 with three brief starts. He spent most of last season at Triple-A and now appears to be up to stay, though his results need to get a lot better.

A lot-slot thrower, Hancock gets all kinds of arm-side run on his sinker, four-seam, and changeup. Those pitches make up 84% of his repertoire, so getting -7 run value from them isn’t helpful. His 95 mph four-seam plays like a normal sinker and has actually done pretty well, but the 94-95 sinker hasn’t worked despite getting more run and depth than most of its kind. He just doesn’t get much chase and hasn’t generated enough grounders.

Hancock’s slider and sweeper could be good pitches because they deviate so widely from his other stuff, but he doesn’t throw them often enough to make much of a difference. And since they’re thrown in the 79-82 mph range, hitters may be able to spit on them more easily. That is a huge velo disparity, giving hitters a lot more time to see and react to spin. So even though he’s done a pretty good job of staying away from barrels, hit stuff often ends up being very hittable.

That could be changing a little, however, as Hancock has only given up two hits in three of his last four starts after allowing five or more knocks in seven of his first eight outings. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so he relies on getting outs via contact. Based on what we talked about earlier with the Cubs getting stung by BABIP, this could be either a very frustrating game or one that gets them back on track.

First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.