Quantifying Hope: NL Best Cubs’ Odds Stay Steady After Slow Week
The Cubs just finished a rain-shortened split with the Brewers that included a Wednesday rainout, and that was after getting the second of only two days off this month on Monday. Between that and a series win over the Pirates that featured one-run margins in all four low-scoring games, it’s felt like a bit of a slog. Still, Craig Counsell’s team has managed to tread water as their divisional opponents do the same or worse.
Despite the loss, the Cubs head into Friday’s action with the best record in the National League. They are up on the Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies by a few percentage points, using a combination of power and speed. Putting that together with strong pitching, particularly from the bullpen, has allowed them to win in different ways while avoiding serious losing streaks. That’s why their postseason odds remain almost identical to last week’s 87.5% mark.
The big concern lately is the offense, which went cold for a while on the recent road trip and into the aforementioned series against the Pirates. Soon enough, we may see the pitching regress a little as the bats heat up. Fandoms’ collective memories are very selective, so we get these worries every year as people plaster over the reality that each season looks like the chart above.
Ed. note: Is anyone else bothered by that line in the Barenaked Ladies’ song “The Old Apartment” when he asks why they plastered over the hole he punched in the door? I could see patching up drywall that way, but not a door. I mean, even cheap ones in shoddy rental units are some semblance of wood, no?
Alas, the idea of a (presumably drunk) dude breaking into his old place will have to be disturbing enough. The other thing about that song I have never quite figured out is whether his old partner still lives there and he’s singing about moving on with someone new, or he’s just visiting the old place out of nostalgia. Clarification or your interpretation is welcome.
Okay, not every season shows the Cubs going wire-to-wire as favorites to win the division. But that’s what we see above, and the gap between them and their two closest rivals continues to grow. They’ve got a big chance to increase that distance further with four games in St. Louis beginning Monday and another three back at Wrigley over Fourth of July weekend.
First, they have to take care of business against the Mariners, a team for which I have a mild affinity. That’s largely a function of the Ken Griffey Jr. days, especially since I got to see them play on the South Side as part of a Little League trip back in the day. We saw Randy Johnson oppose Charlie Hough, which was quite a study in contrasts. Carlton Fisk was catching for the Sox, and Bo Jackson was the DH. I also appreciate the M’s for trading Mike Montgomery to the Cubs in 2016.
All that said, I hope they leave Wrigley with a mudhole stomped in their backside.
