Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/26/25): Happ Leads Off, McGuire Catching, Taillon Tossing

Boy, does that soft schedule show up in a big way when you get poor starting pitching performances. The Cubs allowed 19 runs over the first five innings of their games against the Reds, yet still managed to win because they scored 21 runs over the last three innings of those same games. Their two wins came by three or more runs after trailing by four or more, something no other team has done more than once all season.

Taking it a step further, the Cubs have outscored their opponents 53-3 from the 6th inning on over their last nine games. While I think we’d all rather experience more comfortable contests, this says a lot about the team’s “We don’t quit mentality.” It says just as much about an improved bullpen that has kept hitters at bay to allow for the comebacks.

Jameson Taillon has not been the beneficiary of either the offense or his successors out of the pen lately, as he either gives up too many runs or limits hitters to the extent that help isn’t needed. He’s given up eight homers over the last three games, more than 239 MLB pitchers (min. 20 IP) have allowed all season, and his 2.22 HR/9 mark is the highest in baseball. His low walk rate ensures that the individual shots don’t do much damage, but the cumulative impact has been disastrous at times.

He’s throwing too many hittable strikes in general, particularly on first pitches, and his 92.5 mph fastball isn’t going to blow anyone away. Only his seldom-used changeup has generated positive value, so maybe he should consider throwing it more often. That’s largely a function of matchups, as he literally never throws it to right-handed hitters. He used to, but hasn’t since 2022.

The good news is that he’s facing the Rockies’ league-worst offense with the wind blowing in from right-center at around 10 mph. If ever there was a chance for another get-right game, this is it. Knowing he’s got one of the best lineups in the game behind him should help him to go out and cut it loose.

Ian Happ leads off in left and really needs to show signs of life after a very slow start since being reactivated. Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, Dansby Swanson bats cleanup at short, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Nico Hoerner is at second, Justin Turner plays first, Matt Shaw is at third, and big masher Reese McGuire is behind the plate.

I get that Turner has looked much better with the bat lately and that Craig Counsell wants to play the matchups, but it seems like Michael Busch should maybe get some run against southpaws. Might not matter today.

The opposing pitcher in this one is Carson Palquist, a 24-year-old lefty who is making just his third MLB start. Palmquist has gone 8.1 innings total and has only two strikeouts with five walks while allowing 16 hits. A stereotypical crafty lefty who pitches backwards with his 74 mph sweeper leading the way at 38%, he gets serious extension to make his stuff play up a little bit. Not that it matters much when his fastball is shy of 91 mph.

Palmquist throws from a low three-quarter slot and has very unconventional shapes on both his four-seam (30%) and sinker (20%). The former gets less ride and more arm-side than most, while the latter is almost an upshoot pitch. The “sinker” is also thrown at nearly 92 mph, which is interesting even if it’s not super weird. The sweeper gets less vertical movement than most, but has been at least mildly effective from a relative standpoint.

The samples are too small to say much about the massive reverse splits, as facing 11 left-handed hitters may not be indicative of what he’ll do today and in the future. That said, this young starter has not gotten chase and has been hammered repeatedly when forced to go to the heater(s) when he falls behind. Even if he pitches better than he has to this point in his young career, the Cubs should be able to hang a crooked number.

First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 26, 2025