MVPCA Hits Re-Pete, Several Cubs Serve Crow, Old Friend Hits 10 Years of Service Time
Things weren’t looking too hot for Matt Boyd and the Cubs when the first five Reds batters combined for two doubles and three singles to build a 3-0 lead. Then a walk put a man on with Boyd at 29 pitches and no outs recorded. Five pitches later, the Cubs were out of the inning and it felt like they had found a little air bubble in a capsized boat. Then the Reds scored again in the 3rd, removing most of what little oxygen was left.
That’s when Pete Crow-Armstrong happened.
After Seiya Suzuki hit a one-out double in the top of the 4th, the NL WAR leader ambushed a 99.9 mph Hunter Greene fastball and sent it sailing 410 feet out to right-center to halve the lead. The Reds retaliated with a pair of runs in their half of the 5th, but the vibe had shifted such that the 6-2 lead didn’t feel as secure as their early advantage had.
Because PCA happened again.
He wasn’t alone, as his teammates loaded the bases to set up a two-run single from Kyle Tucker. After Suzuki singled to load ’em up again, the burgeoning superstar wasted no time depositing a Tony Santillan slider over the foul pole in right for a grand slam. The Cubs were up 8-6 and never looked back.
A three-run homer from Suzuki — with a man in scoring position, no less — inflated the lead, and a Dansby Swanson two-run dinger capped the scoring. We’ll get to those two in a bit, but the spotlight will remain on the most dynamic player the Cubs have had in quite some time. Crow-Armstrong is displaying every fiber of the massive potential that had the Cubs trading Javy Báez and Trevor Williams to the Mets to get him. That deal looks like an epic fleecing in hindsight, but not everyone believed in PCA up until about a month ago.
Even as his hot stretch lengthened, and perhaps still today, some fans are waiting for the other shoe to drop. He swings at too many pitches; the power can’t possibly hold up; he doesn’t walk enough. That last one makes sense in terms of moving him back out of the leadoff spot once Ian Happ was activated, but this kid is the goods. Heading into Saturday’s action, his 3.2 fWAR puts him on pace for roughly 9 fWAR on the season.
To put that in perspective, only nine players in Cubs history have gotten to 8+ fWAR in a single season (see end of article for list). Only four have ever reached 9+, and three of them won the MVP in those seasons. The lone Cub who didn’t win an MVP for his exploits is Ron Santo, who is also the only Cub EVER with three seasons of 8+ fWAR. His career total of 71.9 fWAR trails just Cap Anson‘s 81.8 for best in team history, making his overlong Hall of Fame exclusion that much more maddening.
Back to PCA, who could still reach the 7.5 mark even if he slows down the rest of the season. That would put him in company with a group of only 17 Cubs in history. We’re talking about him putting up an all-time great performance in just his first full season as a big leaguer. Did I mention he’s also potentially the best defensive player in the entire sport?
I’m old enough to remember fans getting upset with him for having the audacity to walk away from an extension offer that could have maxed out at $75 million with options. While most of those folks didn’t have proper context for the reported structure of the deal, suffice to say it was laughable at the time and is starting to look embarrassingly bad for the front office. Moving forward, he’s looking at eight zeroes with at least a one in front of them.
And the thing is, the Cubs can still do that after working something out with Tucker. I have seen a lot of chatter about it being a matter of one or the other, but I’ll echo the guy from that old Enterprise commercial who, when asked by his wife whether she should bring the red or black lingerie for their weekend getaway, says, “Both!” I’ll even wear his goofy grin.
Not only is Tucker the rising tide lifting all the ships, but his deadline to be extended or signed is coming up much sooner than PCA’s. Even if that means watching the price go up for the latter, the Cubs will have that much more time to work through the financials. They’ll also have the boon of the 2027 All-Star Game to add to revenue streams that already rank among the highest in MLB.
PCA has been elite, but don’t let that fool you into thinking the Cubs can get by with paying him on a rookie deal and spreading the Tucker “savings” around to lesser players.
Crow on the menu
They’ve got Crow-Armstrong on the roster and Old Crow Smokehouse down the street, but a pair of Cubs continue to serve up heaping helpings of comeuppance to the legions who doubted them. For most of the season, our mentions have been flooded with people decrying Swanson as the second coming of Jason Heyward and saying Suzuki only hits with no one on base.
The narratives surrounding both players have been warped badly by observers who base their opinions on limited anecdotal evidence, apparently unaware that stats exist to prove them wrong. Remember when I wrote about Swanson’s production being inordinately impacted by bad luck? Hoo boy, that was not received well by the Facebook crowd. Knee-jerk takes abounded, many urging the Cubs to part ways with the washed-up shortstop.
Funny how a larger sample helps to prove out what too few wanted to accept in the early going. Swanson is now up to a 121 wRC+ — that means he’s 21% better than the average big leaguer in run production — and he’s third on the team with 1.6 fWAR. It’s entirely possible he’ll end up with the best offensive season of his career.
As for Suzuki, well, he just keeps mashing. There’s this weird thing where he’ll take a close strike or an awkward swing, and swaths of fans decide he sucks as a result. Well, I hate to be the one to tell you, but his 137 wRC+ ranks third on the team and is just behind his career-best 138 from last season. The splits go from 113 with bases empty to 161 with runners on and 203 with RISP. Maybe the next time you see him take an ugly hack, go outside and touch some grass before firing off a molten take about his production.
Since I already covered him in the opening segment, I won’t note how more than just one or two fans wanted PCA sent down after a slow start. Oops, couldn’t help myself from one last dose of pettiness.
Service time benchmark
Only about 7% of MLB players reach 10 years of service time, making it a source of great pride in addition to carrying a wealth of benefits. Players who reach that mark receive a fully vested pension that starts at $68,000 annually by age 45 and increases to $220,000 by age 62. They can also get full trade veto powers if they have five consecutive years with their current team, but the latest member of the club isn’t eligible for that.
Tucker Barnhart may not have played his best baseball with the Cubs, but he kept grinding after being cut loose in 2023 and recently hit 10 full years as a member of the Rangers. Waiting for him in the clubhouse prior to Friday’s game were a load of gifts that included a bottle of Old Rip Van Winkle 10 Year Bourbon, a custom-engraved bottle of Johnnie Walker of unknown vintage (looks like Gold Label), a golf bag, a signed bat, and more. Most of the items featured logos from all the teams with which Barnhart accrued his service time.
Though he’s often named alongside Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer in ignominy, I’ll always have a soft spot for Barnhart. As I’ve probably noted in the past, he’s from our current hometown and his dad gave my son hitting lessons for many years. Barnhart’s perseverance sets a tremendous example for young ballplayers to follow, so kudos to him on this accomplishment.
Ryne Sandberg (1984) – 8.0
Hack Wilson (1930) – 8.0
Ron Santo (1966) – 8.5
Ron Santo (1964) – 8.7
Ernie Banks (1958) – 8.7
Ron Santo (1967) – 9.5
Ernie Banks (1959) – 9.7
Sammy Sosa (2001) – 9.9
Rogers Hornsby (1929) – 11.0
What you have to consider about WAR calculations is that they are figured relative to the league, which is why Sosa “only” had 9.9 despite slashing .327/.437/.737 with 64 homers and 160 RBI that year. Having juiced-up competition will do that.
