Chicago Cubs Lineup

Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/16/25): PCA Leads Off, Ballesteros DH, Horton Making First Start

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanMay 16, 2025

The Cubs open their first series against the White Sox on Friday afternoon at Wrigley, and they’ll do so with their top pitching prospect making his first start in his home debut. Should be a fun day at the ballpark with Cade Horton showing what he can do. After opting for an opener to bypass the top of the Mets’ vaunted lineup in his MLB debut, Craig Counsell is getting Horton back to a standard routine against a far inferior offense.

Horton looked good outside of one mistake, striking out five and issuing no walks over four innings of work. He scattered four hits, with three of them coming in a 4th inning that was capped by Brett Baty‘s three-run homer, and hit a batter to earn the win. Now he gets to face a team that is 40% worse offensively — 75 wRC+ vs 115 — than the Mets.

The White Sox are near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive category and should give Horton a chance to build his confidence even further. Add in the warm welcome of his home debut and you’ve got a recipe for what could be a very exciting afternoon. Now as long as the bats give him at least as much support as he got the last time out.

Pete Crow-Armstrong remains in the leadoff spot and center field, followed by Kyle Tucker in right and Seiya Suzuki in left. Suzuki has manned the position well and he continues to bust up narratives about his hitting, making him one of the most valuable players on the team. Michael Busch cleans up at first, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Dansby Swanson slides up to sixth as the shortstop. Moisés Ballesteros is the DH, Nico Hoerner handles second, and Jon Berti is at third.

My only real gripe with this lineup is that it’s built just like you’d expect with a righty on the mound. However, they Cubs are facing a young starter who’s pitching to marked reverse splits. Here’s to hoping Counsell ends up looking way smarter than me this afternoon.

They’re up against 25-year-old rookie Shane Smith, who has become the team’s surprise ace after being acquired from the Brewers via the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft last December. A big strikeout guy who allowed very few homers in the minors, Smith apparently didn’t appeal to the Brewers as a viable option for their meh rotation or bullpen. They had been using him mainly as a reliever over parts of four seasons, but the Sox have him starting full-time.

Though Smith is only 1-2 in eight previous starts, his 2.08 ERA indicates that the record is almost solely a function of his team’s overall ineptitude. That ERA is perhaps a little lucky, but he’s pitched very well across out the board. The most glaring weak spot is that his strikeouts are down significantly from the minors, where he was routinely in the double-digit K/9 range. A 21.5% strikeout rate isn’t bad, it’s just middling.

Smith’s chase rate is only in the eighth percentile, so he relies on avoiding barrels and hard contact to find success. He’s given up just one home run so far despite a 36.4% fly ball rate, using his sinking four-seam and heavy changeup to keep hitters from elevating the ball with authority. That heater averages 95 mph and the firm change comes in a 90 with serious arm-side run.

Going with a kick-change has been the biggest separator for him, as it makes his offspeed pitch a real weapon while helping the fastball play up as well. That combo makes up nearly two-thirds of his repertoire, then he’s got a decent 89 mph slider and an 82 mph curve that hasn’t worked all that well to this point. His sinker is mediocre, he just doesn’t throw it enough to matter much.

The big key for Smith is that he’s dominated left-handed hitters this season to the tune of a .167/.261/.231 slash. As you can see, however, he’ll issue more than his share of free passes to them. That’s what the Cubs may need to leverage in this one. Smith has only gone six innings once this season and doesn’t figure to go deep, so making him work and getting to the bullpen early will put them in a good spot.

I think this is going to be a fun one all around because I’m a sucker for a good changeup, but I think Horton will shove and the Cubs will break through against Smith. The wind blowing out hard to center could help their cause. We’ll find out for certain at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanMay 16, 2025
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