Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/12/25): PCA Leads Off, Kelly DH, Rea Starting
After losing only two of their first nine series, the Cubs have now dropped three of their last five sets. They still haven’t had a skid worse than three losses, though, and the softest portion of the schedule should allow them to get right after scoring two or fewer runs in three of the last four games. Monday sees them opening a series against a Marlins team that has lost seven of their last 10 games and has a -69 run differential.
The Cubs are sending undefeated staff ace Colin Rea to the mound to open the series, so this one’s pretty much in the bag. I’m not being completely serious there, but Rea leads the rotation with a 2.43 ERA and his 0.7 fWAR is just a tenth of a point behind Matthew Boyd despite having pitched just under 30 innings. Ben Brown is also at 0.7 fWAR, though it should be noted that pitcher WAR figures are not always indicative of true performance.
Rea looked a little shaky the last time out, but that was against a Giants lineup that was a bit stronger than what he’ll face tonight. The Marlins rank 23rd with a 91 team wRC+ and 24th with a 92 wRC+ against righties, plus they’re tied with the Rockies for 23rd with 34 total homers. Wanna guess where their 8.1% walk rate and .131 ISO rank? You guessed it: 23rd. The only facet of Miami’s offense that isn’t in almost the exact same spot is their 22.9% strikeout rate, which is 20th.
As long as the Cubs’ bats show up, they should not have problems with this team. That starts with Pete Crow-Armstrong once again leading off in place of Ian Happ, who remains sidelined with an oblique issue. Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is in left, and Michael Busch cleans up at first. Carson Kelly is the DH, which is a significant upgrade, then it’s Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short, Miguel Amaya behind the plate, and Jon Berti at third.
On the bump for the visitors is Cal Quantrill, the son of Paul Quantrill and son-in-law of Andy Ashby, who is the uncle of Brewers pitcher Aaron Ashby. Quantrill has bounced around a bit since being selected eighth overall by the Padres in 2016. He debuted with the Pads in 2019, then was traded to Cleveland in 2020. He signed with the Rockies in 2023 after being DFA’d by the Guardians, then signed with the Marlins in February after Colorado non-tendered him.
Quantrill looked like an ace in the making, or at least a very strong top-of-the-rotation option, through the 2022 season. Then things changed, whether due to injury or something else. The cutter and sinker that had been his best weapons turned into two of his worst pitches, and he appeared to have lost his feel for the changeup as well. So far this year, the splitter and curve seem to be the only pitches getting positive results.
The good news for Quantrill is that he throws the split more than any other pitch in a very balanced repertoire, going to it about 27% of the time. The bad news is that his 93 mph fastball is in the first percentile for run value. His 15.7% strikeout rate is among the lowest in MLB and he also walks more batters than most while giving up a lot of hard contact. Though only five balls have left the yard against him, he’s allowed 42 hits in 31.2 innings so far.
Though he’s pitched to pretty even splits in the past, righties have always hit Quantrill a little better. That is certainly the case this year, as righties are batting .426 with an 1.118 OPS and .480 wOBA against him. The Cubs had better go up there hacking against him tonight. Feels like a good game for a Suzuki dinger and a bunch of baserunners on the whole.
First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
