Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/1/25): Amaya Catching, Lopez at 3B, Rea Facing Skenes
The Cubs couldn’t carry their power from the series opener into last night’s loss, and now they face a man who will eventually be MLB’s best pitcher if he isn’t already. Wednesday’s game was marred by an incident in the 7th inning that saw a man tumble more than 20 feet from atop the Clemente Wall in right field onto the warning track. He was motionless as medical crews rushed to his aid and is now in critical condition at Allegheny General Hospital.
According to a release, Pittsburgh Police say they do not anticipate providing additional details to the public. Though many who have viewed the disturbing videos of the fall say it appears as though the man jumped, the police are treating the incident as an accident. Players and fans were obviously shaken last night and probably remain so today. Our thoughts and prayers are with the man and his family.
This game features the earliest non-Tokyo start of the season and sees what might be the best pitching matchup to date on paper. Colin Rea has an exceedingly ecin 0.96 ERA through six appearances split evenly between the bullpen and rotation. He has allowed just two earned runs with 17 strikeouts and three walks in starts against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, all of which have pretty decent offenses.
He has filled in admirably for Justin Steele, actually out-performing the lefty to this point behind a fastball-heavy seven-pitch mix. Rea’s velocity is up and his arm slot is down significantly, throwing from a 30-degree angle after having never been lower than 35 in previous seasons. That seems like a trend for both the Cubs — as we see with recent call-up Chris Flexen — and MLB as a whole, so keep an eye on that.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have much offense, but Rea may need all the help he can get given his counterpart. That would be Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year and future multi-time Cy Young winner for the Pirates and Yankees. Skenes likewise has seven pitches after incorporating a nasty sinker to a mix made up of a four-seam, splitter, curve, sweeper, slider, and change.
The 98 mph fastball and 94 mph splitter — a combo the Cubs saw from late reliever David Bednar last night — make up nearly two-thirds of Skenes’ offerings, but the variety and execution of his secondaries are what make him elite. His strikeouts are actually down significantly this year, a product of fewer whiffs and chases. At the same time, his 2.8% walk rate is less than half of his stellar mark as a rookie, so he’s pitching even more efficiently.
Skenes gets grounders at a 52% clip by missing barrels and limiting hard contact. He has no discernible weakness and can’t be counted on to make mistakes, so this may just be a matter of trying to wait him out. You can’t go up there trying to ambush a first-pitch heater because Skenes is 79th out of 86 qualified pitchers with just a 57% first-pitch strike rate. He does work the zone more frequently than most, but it’s not like hitters are able to make contact very well.
The best bet might be to get in there knowing everything is going to be moving east-west from his 20-degree arm slot. None of his pitches generate much depth due to that angle and velocity, but he gets loads of cut and run. Rather than riding, his four-seam has tons of arm-side movement. The sweeper and slider, on the other hand, play with more carry than hitters are used to seeing. They almost feel like upshoot pitches, which is very trippy for the batter.
When facing an elite arm like Skenes, the best thing to do is just hold on and weather the storm. Maybe the Cubs can catch a break or two by taking their cuts aggressively, which is a better strategy than hoping he walks a bunch of guys. Guess right a few times and something good might come of it. I’m excited to watch this guy pitch, I just hope Rea can match him to give the Cubs a shot.
As for the lineup, it’s Ian Happ in left, Kyle Tucker in right, Seiya Suzuki at DH, and Michael Busch at first. Nico Hoerner handles second base, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Miguel Amaya is catching, and Dansby Swanson is at short as he looks to continue his rebound. Nicky Lopez gets his first Cubs start at third, which is all about trying to limit runs. His bat probably won’t count for much today, but he can pick it on the infield.
First pitch is at 11:35am CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Here is today’s starting lineup against the Pirates.
Watch the game live on the Marquee Sports Network app. pic.twitter.com/HcGX7Htmpg
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 1, 2025
