Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/29/25): Kelly Batting Cleanup, Swanson 8th, Imanaga Starting

The Cubs just had their sixth and final off-day of April, which is as many as they’ll have in May (4) and June (2) combined, and now they get their first six divisional games of the season. For context, they’ve already played 20 games against the NL West and will host the Giants and Rockies in May. That means it won’t be until July 28, nearly two weeks after the All-Star game, before the Cubs play more games within their own division than they have against the West.

That’s an exceptional degree of dumbassery, even for a league that routinely sets a new gold standard for poor decisions. Alas.

This quick road swing also represents the first time the Cubs have played in Eastern time, which is a tremendous blessing for those of us who reside in said zone. And while the early starts may feel a little weird, it beats the hell out of all those late nights in the early going. It helps that Pittsburgh has such a beautiful ballpark, but it sure would be nice if their ownership didn’t make Tom Ricketts look positively profligate by comparison.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s great knowing they’ll never be able to sustain success so long as ol’ Bob Nutting is running the show. The Steel City deserves better. In the meantime, it sure would be nice to hand them a few losses before moving on to Milwaukee. That starts with Shōta Imanaga on the bump to face a team he pitched against twice last year.

He’s allowed only two hits to members of this roster, both singles, and has struck out nine with two walks. The Pirates come into this one with a .224 team batting average (25th in MLB), a .644 OPS, and a 79 wRC+ (both 27th). Though their rankings are a little higher against lefties, their .218 average, .610 OPS, and 68 wRC+ tell us they don’t particularly care for southpaws. As long as he keeps the walks down, Imanaga should do well tonight.

Craig Counsell has finally made some big changes to his lineup, but the top three remain Ian Happ in left, Kyle Tucker in right, and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Hot-hitting catcher Carson Kelly slides all the way up to the fourth spot, with Michael Busch dropping to fifth. Nico Hoerner stays batting sixth and playing second, Pete Crow-Armstrong is seventh, and the sluggish Dansby Swanson bats eighth at short. Third baseman Jon Berti serves as the caboose.

They’re facing 33-year-old lefty Andrew Heaney, who is off to an impressive start in his first season with the Pirates. Either because of his low velocity or some rough seasons with the Angels, this dude kind of gets slept on. We had looked at him as a potential buy-low target for the Cubs a couple years ago, but he ended up in Texas on a two-year, $25 million deal. Even though the injury issues that have plagued his career weren’t entirely gone, he exceeded 100 innings in consecutive seasons for the first time in 11 MLB seasons.

The one red flag from his time with the Rangers is that his strikeout numbers dropped to their lowest levels since 2015. They’ve ticked up slightly through five starts with the Pirates, and his 5.1% walk rate puts him in the 83rd percentile. Heaney is doing a very good job of avoiding barrels and keeping the ball in the yard.

His 90 mph heater is incredibly effective because it runs like a two-seam and creates great separation with an 82 mph changeup that gets similar arm-side movement. Those two pitches have Heaney in the 99th percentile for run value (10) entering Tuesday’s action. His slider and curve aren’t nearly as good and never really have been, so they’re pretty much there for show.

To be fair, the slider is actually decent when he has it working. The problem is that it’s very inconsistent and will frequently back up on him. That could be a contributing factor to marked reverse splits that deviate somewhat from historical results. Though lefties have carried a higher average against Heaney, righties have slugged much better to take the wOBA advantage. This season, however, right-handed batters are slashing .136/.195/.210 with a .188 wOBA; all of those marks are at least 105 points lower than left-handers.

Despite his lengthy career, Heaney has very little experience against this Cubs roster. Outside of Tucker (13) and Justin Turner (19), no other Cub has faced him more than twice. And that’s just six total ABs with one hit and three strikeouts. Tucker is 1-for-13, but he’s drawn seven walks with a homer. I really don’t like the way this matchup looks on paper, so let’s hope for a little reverse karma tonight.

First pitch is at 5:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

?Pittsburgh, PA

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 29, 2025