The Rundown Lite: Cubs Channeling Rocky Balboa, Aggressive Baserunning Paying Dividends, Justin Turner’s Struggles

The immortal Rocky Balboa told us in the eponymous 2006 film that it ain’t about how hard you hit, it’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done. Based on how the Cubs have played this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Craig Counsell shared those words or played that clip on a loop before games.

Their first two Sunday games saw them cough up late leads, but they bounced back for huge wins each following Monday. A shutout loss in LA was followed by a 16-0 drubbing of the Dodgers, and they’ve now battled back from blowing big leads against both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers over the last four games. It feels like something out of Rocky IV, with the Cubs just trading blows with a bigger opponent and somehow coming out on top.

“We don’t quit here,” Miguel Amaya told reporters after tying the game in the 9th with a big homer. “If they score five, we’re ready to score one per inning. The mentality here is to go out there and compete every single pitch. That’s what has been helping us.”

Even with a bullpen that hasn’t found its sea legs and third base remaining a position in flux both offensively and defensively, the Cubs don’t quit. That’s a whole lot of fun for players and fans alike, but there is a concern about how having to expend so much energy will affect them over time. They’ve had the toughest schedule in MLB by far to this point and won’t get much of a break for another couple of weeks, making all these early days off crucial.

They’ve got the power, they’ve got the speed

Per OptaSTATS, the Cubs are the first team in MLB history — like, forever — to have at least 35 steals and home runs each through their first 25 games. That’s pretty good. Their 37 dingers put them third behind the Yankees (41) and Dodgers (39), while their 35 steals are tops in baseball. Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s eight steals put him third in MLB, and what’s really wild is that the top five is populated by a different player from each NL Central team.

The Cubs have four players with at least six steals apiece, which puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses and gives the offense more chances to be opportunistic. One specific area in which they are doing a much better job is scoring runners from second base on singles. They did that only 92 times last season, eight below the league average and 45 fewer than the first-place Dodgers.

This season, however, the Cubs lead MLB with 27 runners scoring from second on singles. That comes out of 39 possible opportunities, good for a very nice 69% clip that far outpaces their 57% mark from last year. After taking extra bases (more than one base on singles or more than two on doubles) at a 43% rate last year, they’re at 46% so far in 2025. Those three points may not seem like much in a vacuum, but we’re talking about 17 extra bases out of last year’s combination of 574 singles and doubles hit with runners on first or second.

If that doesn’t seem like much, just think about how many times one run would have tied the game or taken the lead. Maybe all 17 of those bases are inconsequential, but I’d be willing to bet several are integral to a given outcome. Then you figure this offense is hitting .265 this season vs .242 last year, which projects to another 55 total hits over the course of 162 games.

More baserunners equals more runs equals more pressure on the opposition equals better outcomes.

Justin Turner showing his age

I was completely in favor of signing Turner at the time it happened, in part because I’d been advocating for him as veteran bench depth for a while. But then Counsell started batting him third when he occupied the DH role during Seiya Suzuki‘s absence, casting a spotlight on the aging infielder’s declining offensive prowess. After aging very gracefully through his age-39 season, posting wRC+ marks of 115 and 117 over large samples each of the last two seasons, Turner looks lost at the plate.

It’s not entirely fair to judge his production over a mere 44 plate appearances, but the underlying data provides nothing to indicate he’ll bounce back. At least not in a significant way. Never elite, Turner’s bat speed now sits at 64.5 mph and currently ranks 249th out of 252 qualified players in the Statcast database. What’s more, he’s down 1.4 mph from last season and nearly two ticks from 2023.

Turner is well below the MLB average of 71.5 mph and even the D1 college average of around 68 mph. Most high school varsity players generate swings ranging from 57-71 mph, putting the average at 63-64 mph or thereabouts. Based on the data I’ve personally collected from my 16-year-old son’s use of a Blast Motion sensor, he’s currently at 66.7 mph this month.

While this ignores a great deal of context, the fact of the matter is that you have to swing the bat hard to hit the ball hard. You also need to square it up, which Turner is doing at a 22% rate that is in MLB’s 27th percentile. He isn’t catching barrels, which could be due at least in part to having a slow bat. When he does make contact, his ability to do damage is decreased.

As small a difference as these things may be when viewed separately, it could be a matter of Father Time stacking straw on Turner’s back. At some point, what was a very shallow aging curve must eventually reach the inflection point beyond which performance can no longer keep pace. I’d like to hope the 40-year-old hasn’t gotten there yet and that collecting a few hits will plump his numbers up quickly. Fingers crossed.