Cubs Have Next-Man-Up Mentality Facing Justin Steele’s Potential Extended Absence

The Cubs were facing a very challenging stretch of the season regardless, but their path to May and beyond may have gotten quite a bit steeper with news that Justin Steele is seeking additional opinions on his left elbow. Craig Counsell made that announcement prior to Friday’s game in LA, indicating this is still a similar issue that shelved the lefty for two weeks near the end of last season. At the risk of playing armchair orthopedist, it strikes me as odd that one would need a second or third opinion on a diagnosis of elbow tendinitis.

Who knows, maybe it’s just a matter of one doctor advising against a cortisone injection or something along those lines. Perhaps the initial prognosis is that Steele would need to rest for several weeks rather than what was initially expected to be a minimum stay on the IL. The fear, however, is that Steele wouldn’t be getting additional advice if imaging had revealed something as garden-variety as tendinitis.

This is hardly a unique situation for Steele or the Cubs. The lefty’s tenure as a prospect was littered with injuries, most notably elbow reconstruction in 2017, and he’s missed several months in Chicago with various issues over the last few years. The difference this season is that the Cubs are finally supposed to be contending again and really need one of their top two starters to make it work.

“You can’t replace Justin Steele because he’s one of one,” Matthew Boyd said after Friday’s loss. “He’s really talented. That being said, we have that next-man-up mentality and we have a very talented rotation. We have a lot of experience and we also have a lot of young guys that are very talented. So for however long Justin is gonna be down for, we have guys that can step up and perform in those roles. And we’re excited for that. And that’s what, with championship teams, that’s what has to happen.”

Boyd’s got to be optimistic because it’s part of his job, so this isn’t like George Constanza saying it’s not a lie if you believe it. Still, I’m not sure how many people are comfortable with Colin Rea or Jordan Wicks making multiple starts in April and May, let alone down the stretch. Barring a surprise breakout by one of those two, this intensifies the need for a deadline deal that was already apparent. Only problem is, Steele being out for an extended time puts the Cubs in a very disadvantageous spot.

Unless the Padres collapse in the next few months, it doesn’t look like Dylan Cease is being shipped out of San Diego for anything less than a stupid haul. Even with the reduced cost of a very short-term rental, A.J. Preller will smell blood in the water. Sandy Alcántara was probably a more realistic option regardless of circumstances, plus the Marlins have historically been quite a bit less savvy than some of their small-market counterparts when it comes to trade values.

Steele being out for more than the minimum might also increase the likelihood that the Cubs speed up the clock on Cade Horton. I’ve maintained for some time now that their top pitching prospect is more likely to get his first taste of MLB action as a reliever in order to limit his innings, just as the Cubs did with Steele in 2021, but the calculus may have changed. And to be fair, Steele ended up making nine starts as a rookie after coming up as a reliever, getting hurt, and stretching back out in Iowa for a little over a month.

Horton’s very limited experience — he pitched 34.1 total innings last year after 88.1 in 2023 and just 53.2 in his lone season of college ball — means the Cubs won’t try to push him too hard this season. But they should also realize that, between the decidedly non-zero injury risk for pitchers and their poor organizational track record for developing arms, they can’t just leave Horton down at Triple-A just hoping they can find perfect timing for his inevitable promotion.

My personal preference would be to get Horton to Chicago as quickly as possible to make a few starts, then potentially shift him to the bullpen in the second half following the acquisition of a power arm at the trade deadline. Or maybe the Cubs stick with Rea/Wicks and promote Horton to the bullpen, then send him back to Iowa to stretch out for the last couple months of the season.

On second thought, my personal preference is actually for Steele to be healthy by May and for the Cubs to still call Horton up and trade for Alcántara or another power arm. Hey, a boy can dream.