Pending Another Deal or Two, Cubs Morphing into Latter-Day Astros
Tanking has long been a thing in professional sports, but it rose to the forefront in MLB a little over a decade ago as both the Astros and Cubs got comfortable with the idea of intentionally losing 90+ games. It was a means to the end of drafting as high as possible and “developing” those players into core pieces of a championship run. While both teams have experienced ultimate success, Houston has clearly done a better job of sustaining it as a result of a stronger and more consistent development infrastructure.
The Cubs didn’t so much develop prospects as correctly identify high first-round picks and young trade targets who’d be able to matriculate quickly through the minors. That’s how they were able to win 103 games and the World Series just four years after losing 101 games and getting the second pick in the draft. Houston tanked even harder, losing at least 106 games in three straight seasons and dropping 416 contests from 2011-14. In 10 seasons since, they’ve had seven first-place finishes and four World Series appearances, two of which resulted in titles.
Luck plays a role, but it’s much more a matter of being intentional about polishing diamonds in the rough and crafting a system that got the most out of its pitchers. The Cubs, on the other hand, spun their wheels for several years by selecting workhorse-type pitchers with high floors and limited ceilings. By the time they figured that out, it was too late. Jason McLeod, who oversaw the farm system in the early years of Theo Epstein’s regime, admitted in 2019 that their philosophy was all wrong and that the Astros were doing it better.
“We have to re-evaluate what we’re doing because it hasn’t been working,” McLeod explained. “So it’s really just that, looking at ourselves and what are some of the things we can do to change it up. Obviously you’re looking at what other teams are doing too, teams that have been increasing velocity or increasing swings and misses, and you look at all of that information and try to see what they’ve been doing.”
Six years later, the Cubs are still trying to copy the Astros’ model. The big difference is that now they’re trying to add a bunch of current and former Houston stars to build out that 90-win roster everyone keeps talking about. They’ve already traded for Kyle Tucker and have a deal in place to acquire Ryan Pressly, provided they are willing to guarantee him the closer role so he’ll waive his no-trade clause. That’s not as simple as it sounds, as Pressly’s family lives in the Houston area year-round.
It makes sense for him to put conditions on a deal, as being a closer would mean both pitching in his preferred role and likely earning much more in free agency next winter. Therein lies the rub of the whole family thing, as Pressly would most likely have to uproot or be away from his brood next year anyway. I’ve also seen some folks chastising him for trying to paint the Cubs into a corner, but he’s got every right to make demands in his position.
Besides, guaranteeing him the 9th inning today doesn’t mean things can’t change in the future. Dude can’t exactly go back in time and rescind his approval if he sucks out loud and gets demoted to setup man in May. It doesn’t sound like money is an issue based on the fact that the two teams already have a deal in place. Depending on how much the Astros are willing to eat, which is contingent on how much the Cubs are willing to give up, Jed Hoyer will have more money for other pursuits.
I’m guessing Alexander Canario will be involved in this deal one way or another. He’s got nowhere to play in Chicago and his right-handed power should work well with the Crawford Boxes in Houston’s left field.
As for those other pursuits, it feels like Alex Bregman is still a pipe dream. Bruce Levine said on 670 The Score Saturday morning that Bregman prefers New York or Chicago but that he wants at least five years (duh) and that the Cubs are not inclined to stretch beyond three. He’s going to command at least the same $25 million annually the Cubs just freed up by trading Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, but that figure will rise as the duration decreases.
Unless something has changed with the budget, the assumption all along has been that Hoyer has to stay well under the CBT penalty threshold of $241 million. With the Cubs currently sitting just below $200 million now by most estimates, they’ve probably got a max of $30 million left to spend. Even that might be generous since they need to have room for midseason acquisitions while remaining out of penalty range. Bregman eats that up all by himself, so you can forget about much more bullpen help.
I won’t get back into the idea of trading Nico Hoerner for salary space, but suffice to say he’s better than most people think and Bregman isn’t as good as the image many seem to have of him. A more likely situation is that the Cubs trade for Pressly and then sign another short-term reliever like old friend David Robertson or former Astros setup man Ryne Stanek. We discussed the latter possibility last year and Levine confirmed that the Cubs have talked with Stanek, which would be cool just for his first name alone.
Though Robertson’s stats have looked better than Stanek’s of late, the elder reliever’s profile isn’t as dissimilar from Pressly’s. Both of them throw in the low 90s and get more cut or glove-side movement on their stuff. Stanek sits close to 98 mph and has more arm-side movement than average, giving him a decidedly different look from Pressly. It’d be funny to see the Cubs recreate the Astros’ old back end, but it would be an improvement over what we saw on the North Side last year.
We should get a resolution to the Pressly saga on Saturday, after which the next domino(es) should fall relatively quickly. Shoring up the bullpen has been Hoyer’s focus for weeks now and he’s already seen too many targets poached to sit back and let this drag out much longer.