Despite Current Projections, Cubs Still Haven’t Done Enough to Unseat Brewers
Most folks say the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry is iconic in the annals of baseball history. You won’t get any arguments from fans of the storied franchises, but the Brewers might like a word. Milwaukee won the NL Central in three of the last four seasons, and if you discard the shortened 2020 season, you have to go all the way back to 2017 to find a Cubs team that won more games than their Wisconsin counterparts.
The Brewers are 19 games better than the Cubs since the start of the 2023 season, and poaching Craig Counsell a year ago did little to change things. Chicago is coming off consecutive 83-79 seasons, so it’s fair to wonder if they’ve done enough to potentially dethrone Milwaukee in 2025. Kyle Tucker was a nice addition, but the Cubs quickly traded Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. And while Matthew Boyd could be a diamond in the rough, he’ll have to pitch better than Kyle Hendricks. After a rough start, The Professor was Chicago’s best starter down the stretch last season.
Tucker should be better than Bellinger and Boyd’s a lottery ticket, but it’s anybody’s guess if Matt Shaw will be better at third base than Christopher Morel or Isaac Paredes. It’s also tough to imagine Shōta Imanaga pitching better this year than last. Michael Busch is another regression candidate even if his high floor says otherwise. On the plus side, Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like he’s ready to break out and Ben Brown could be a monster if he stays healthy and contributes to the rotation.
The January 17 Vegas line set the over/under on Cubs wins at 86.5, four more than an 82.5 mark for the Brewers which seems a little light. Milwaukee traded away Devin Williams, but Trevor Megill saved 26 games last year while Williams was injured. Milwaukee also picked up Nestor Cortés, plus they’re getting Brandon Woodruff back. Cortes is an excellent get, but second-base prospect Caleb Durbin could be a steal. Jackson Chourio returns and could one day be as good as Ronald Acuña Jr. At 24, William Contreras will continue to improve at the plate and behind it. On the flip side, Willy Adames was the Brewers’ biggest loss and Joey Ortiz isn’t going to duplicate his production.
A little voodoo may be in play, too. Chicago has shown a propensity to underperform projection models since 2023. Jed Hoyer made that point clear during his end-of-season presser and stressed the Cubs have to play better to succeed. The Brewers, however, have been outperforming those same models with regularity for the better part of a decade. Changing managers made no difference and Milwaukee’s payroll is significantly less than Chicago’s. That points the arrow squarely at Hoyer. The Cubs spent about $2.8 million per win in 2024, roughly $1.6 million more than the Brewers.
Chicago’s path to unseat the Brewers lies in Hoyer’s ability to improve the bullpen. I don’t know if the Dodgers have a mole in the Cubs’ front office, but they’ve done an excellent job of picking off potential upgrades. Tanner Scott isn’t coming to the North Side and it looks like Kirby Yates decided to follow Scott to Los Angeles. Hoyer should bite the bullet and give the A’s whatever it takes to get Mason Miller. Oakland looks like they’re trying to thread the needle this year, so perhaps a prospect-heavy fit exists.
The Cubs and Brewers are about even as both rosters currently sit. Chicago has approximately $30 million left for reinforcements while the Brewers have about half that in payroll flexibility. Hoyer is obviously counting on Milwaukee’s anticipated regression, but the Pirates and Reds are on the come, too. Tom Ricketts claims he runs the Cubs like a 501(c)(3) entity, so I fully expect Hoyer to spend every penny of his available budget. There’s no reason not to maximize his entire allotment of assets, especially if Tucker is a one-year rental.
Adding Tucker, Boyd, and, to a lesser extent, Carson Kelly and Eli Morgan, isn’t enough. That leaves the Cubs counting too much on a big year from Shaw, repeat seasons by Bush and Imanaga, and a Dansby Swanson rebound. It also means counting on Porter Hodge to avoid surrendering late-inning leads with the regularity of Hector Néris. The Cubs did improve their infrastructure, as they do every season, but that needs to translate to additional wins on the field.
Losing Williams and Adames obviously hurts the Brewers, though not to the tune of a 10-win swing. Milwaukee beat their 2024 win projection by 15 games and they were eight games better the year prior. I’ll normally take firepower over culture 100 out of 100 times, but Milwaukee is the annual contradiction to my hypothesis. The Cubs, therefore, need additional armaments. The two teams are too close for Chicago to rely on intangibles to push their way past the Brewers.