Cubs on Short List as Roki Sasaki Returns to Japan Following Round of In-Person Meetings

Wasserman’s Joel Wolfe, the agent for free-agent pitcher Rōki Sasaki, spoke with reporters Monday evening via Zoom to provide updates on his client’s decision-making process. Wolfe explained that 20 teams submitted initial presentations that included PowerPoint decks, short films, and books. While he would not disclose exactly how many teams were chosen for in-person meetings, we do know Sasaki requested that no current players be in attendance.

The Cubs were one of the teams granted an audience with the 23-year-old flamethrower, news of which apparently irked the front office. That’s a little weird because the information reportedly came from Sasaki’s camp, but we know how Jed Hoyer is about secrecy. Other teams believed to have secured meetings — all of which took place at Wasserman’s offices in LA — include the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Padres, Rangers, and Yankees. The Tigers and Red Sox had not yet heard back on their presentations, but Wolfe indicated another team or two may be granted meetings.

It’s a little strange to see this group after Wolfe said previously that Sasaki might actually prefer the softer landing of a smaller market and reiterated Monday that “market size isn’t a factor either way.” In terms of metro-area population, the teams in question represent the Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, and 18 markets in the country, with Nos. 11 and 14 still waiting. That can all be a little misleading, though, as the Twin Cities (16) and Tampa-St. Pete (17) are both considered small markets despite being larger than San Diego.

The Padres have certainly spent like a big market in recent years, but money isn’t as much of a factor here as we’re used to when discussing top targets. That’s the real rub, as Sasaki’s amateur status means he’s limited to a max bonus of around $12 million and a minor-league contract that will pay him at least $200 million less than he could have secured in two years.

“He’s not coming here just to be rich or get a huge contract,” Wolfe explained when asked about the huge pay cut. “He wants to be great. He wants to be one of the greatest ever. I see that now, and he’s articulated it…

“Seeing (Shōta) Imanaga come over and dominate at such a level in the first half, I believe he realized…in order to take it to the next level he had to come here, play against the best players in the world every day and tap into all the resources that MLB teams have to help him become one of the best pitchers in MLB. That’s what he wants.”

Hey, could that name drop be a clue that Sasaki is favoring the Cubs? Probably not, especially since Wolfe specifically noted that the presence of Japanese players was not a factor. Based on the context, however, it seems the agent is saying that having other Japanese superstars would not be a detriment to a team’s ability to sign Sasaki. It used to be that Japanese culture led players to choose teams without more established countrymen so as to avoid usurping notoriety or something to that effect.

That sentiment has changed in recent years, largely due to the camaraderie and international spotlight fostered by the WBC. Sasaki already knows which players are on which teams, so keeping them out of the mix in his recent meetings was just a matter of forcing front offices to preach their specific organizational merits.

“He doesn’t seem to look at it in the typical way that other players do,” Wolfe said. “He has a more long-term, global view of things. I believe Roki is also very interested in the pitching development and how a team is going to help him get better, both in the near future and over the course of his career.”

In addition to forfeiting a huge sum of money, at least up front, Sasaki appears to be very conscious of the fact that he’s far from a fully formed superstar. He’s never started more than 20 games or pitched more than 129.1 games in a season, and both of those marks came in 2022 when he was just 20 years old. But when you throw a triple-digit fastball with a splitter that could be the best in the game, teams are going to be more than willing to bet on the upside.

And when that bet amounts to mere peanuts compared to similarly talented pitchers on the regular free-agent market, well, you can see why so many are after Sasaki. The Cubs have shown a tremendous ability to woo Japanese players and no doubt put together a great presentation, so I think they’re among the frontrunners here. What concerns me is that their pitching development leaves a whole lot to be desired. They’ve got very few examples of producing truly homegrown arm talent and their injury track record isn’t great. Neither is the Dodgers’, for that matter.

Then again, we could look at the situation from another angle and wonder whether recent enhancements to their pitching infrastructure could impact Sasaki’s decision. Perhaps most important is their partnership with Tokyo-based sports data analytics firm Next Base, which is aimed at improving the organization’s injury-prevention efforts. Next Base will be at Sloan Park during camp to collect data on pitchers’ fingertip motion, ball rotation, energy efficiency, and more. I’d be shocked if that wasn’t part of their presentation to Team Sasaki.

Another feather in the Cubs’ cap is the hiring of former Tread Athletics performance specialist Tyler Zombro, a savant who may rival former pitching director Craig Breslow — who now runs baseball ops in Boston — when it comes to smarts. Without slighting any other members of the pitching development staff, Zombro could be a porch light to Sasaki’s moth when it comes to getting the most out of his exceedingly high ceiling.

The next international signing period opens on January 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closes eight days after that, so he’s got just over three weeks to reach a decision. After spending some time back in Japan for the holidays, it’s possible Sasaki will return stateside for site visits with his finalists. Whether and when those will take place isn’t known for certain, but the abbreviated timeline provides a pretty clear picture.

I’m interested to see whether teams start scrambling to acquire greater bonus pool allotments once the signing period opens, even though I don’t believe the bonus amount really matters. Teams will carry between $5.1462 and $7.5555 million and can trade for up to 60% more, making the max spread anywhere from $8.2 to $12.1 million. This is pretty unprecedented because those pools are typically used to sign multiple players rather than just one.

If you do subscribe to the notion that Sasaki will be swayed by a couple million bucks when he’s already given up a couple hundred, the Cubs have as good a shot as anyone. Their $6.2616 million allotment could swell to just over $10 million if they’re so inclined, putting them at or above all the other teams believed to have held meetings. The Dodgers and Giants are at the low end, nearly $2 million behind, while the Yankees, Padres, Mets, and Rangers are at the same level as the Cubs.

The last wrinkle here is that, while I don’t believe Sasaki cares about getting every penny of a team’s bonus pool, there could still be serious benefits to acquiring more money. It’s evident Sasaki is looking long-term, which means he’s concerned with how his new organization can be competitive well into the future. As such, it would behoove him to keep his bonus low enough to allow his team to add other high-end international amateurs in the 2025 class. If he’s cognizant of the bigger picture, he surely understands the potential difficulty of having just eight days to acquire more pool money.

What if part of Sasaki’s evaluation process was to ask teams what they’d do with their remaining pool money if he wants only $5-6 million? Getting the whole pool for himself would also mean forcing teams to back out of verbal agreements already made with youngsters from all over the Caribbean, Mexico, and South America, so maybe he doesn’t want to be responsible for such collateral damage. That’s all just hypothetical, but I would not be surprised in the least to see him sign for far less than a team’s initial allotment.