Cubs Rumor Roundup: Nico Hoerner More Likely to Stay, $10M Gap in Cody Bellinger Talks with Yanks, Luis Castillo and Jesus Luzardo on Radar

Rather than splitting these up across multiple posts, it seemed prudent to combine them and save us all a little time and effort. Consider it my early Christmahanakwanzika gift to you. The Cubs set the baseball world ablaze on Friday with a huge swing to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros, but they’re far from done with the offseason. The pitching staff still needs a little shoring up and they figure to be dealing at least one more of their regular position players in order to clear some roster space and/or salary.

Let’s turn first to Nico Hoerner, whose name was most prominent in early trade rumors connecting him to the Mariners and A’s. That never really tracked for me because the former team is looking for corner infielders and the latter is no longer located in his hometown. Not to mention his offseason forearm surgery creates uncertainty as to when he’ll be able to return.

As I had noted back in October, it made the most sense to trade the far more volatile production of Isaac Paredes. Now that that’s happened, the Cubs have room for Matt Shaw on the infield. Keeping Hoerner gives them a very consistent, high-floor player with Gold Glove defense to guard against the potential for Shaw’s struggles as he adjusts to the majors.

The wrinkle here is that the Cubs are reportedly still looking for a third baseman, though whether that’s insurance for Shaw or a way to solidify the hot corner to move Hoerner and slide the rookie to second isn’t known. I’m leaning toward the former since Jed Hoyer has traded away or non-tendered a great deal of the organization’s depth at third. In addition to Paredes and Cam Smith going to Houston, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal were let go and you have to figure Miles Mastrobuoni is on thin ice.

Ben Cowles, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Mark Leiter Jr. trade, can play third in addition to second and short, and he was added to the 40-man recently. Then there’s Rule 5 pickup Gage Workman, who hasn’t played above Double-A and seems like a guy they might try to sneak through waivers to use as system depth. Though Cowles doesn’t have the pop you want from a corner man, he could fill in at third or second with Shaw at the other while Hoerner works his way back.

Alec Bohm has been brought up as an option if the Cubs are looking for more of an everyday player, but the Phillies reportedly asked for Mason Miller when the A’s inquired. If that’s how Philly is viewing Bohm, he’s not going anywhere. And while we seemed to have collectively manifested the Tucker deal, I don’t think the same will be true for the possibility of signing Alex Bregman. As such, I tend to agree with Ken Rosenthal that it’s “likely they will keep Hoerner.”

The same is not true for Cody Bellinger, who was as good as gone from the moment he opted back in for the 2025 season. That’s a big part of why I figured he’d just test the market again, as he now has no say over where he ends up. However, all indications are that the Yankees are the most motivated suitor with the best fit, other than some folks thinking Bellinger’s wife being Giancarlo Stanton‘s ex-girlfriend could make things messy. I’m pretty sure grown-ass men can move past that.

The much bigger issue is Bellinger’s guaranteed contract that pays him at last $32.5 million if he opts out after next season and $52.5 million if he sticks around for another year. According to Peter Botte of the New York Post, a trade to the Yankees is still the “most likely avenue” even though the two sides are “more than $10 million apart on an agreement.” That might seem like a lot, but it may just be a matter of haggling over how the return changes based on how much the Cubs eat.

As noted once or twice here, it makes sense for the Cubs to eat $7.5 million this year and $5 million next. That pays Bellinger’s 2025 salary down to $20 million and either covers his buyout for ’26 or pays his salary down to $20 million for that season if he returns to the Yanks. If I had to guess, I’d say the Cubs are only at $5 million to cover the buyout and the Yankees want $20 million or so. Or maybe the Cubs are at $2.5 million to sand down the potential remaining guaranteed figures to nice round numbers and the Yankees are at $12.5-15 million.

Whatever the case, I think it gets worked out soon.

Now we turn to pitching pursuits, with the Cubs reportedly still showing interest in the Mariners’ Luis Castillo. The former Reds righty would have to waive his no-trade clause and he’s got at least $72.45 million left on his five-year, $108 million deal that also includes a $25 million vesting option for 2028. Those wrinkles reduce Jerry Dipoto‘s leverage as he fields offers for the 32-year-old, and Bellinger seemingly being destined for the Bronx means this would not be a salary swap sort of deal.

It could, however, be a way for the Cubs to reallocate the money they save by trading Bellinger. That would require them to move another prospect and/or one of their controllable starters, with Javier Assad possibly being part of the return since he’d be squeezed out of the rotation by Castillo. The Cubs might also look to move James Triantos, a bat-first player who is getting close to being ready and doesn’t have a set position or room on the roster.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score mentioned both Triantos and Owen Caissie as the possible return for lefty Jesus Luzardo, about whom the Cubs and Marlins have reportedly spoken. I don’t know if Levine got his wires crossed or if it’s a matter of the Marlins asking about those prospects, because either one of them seems like an exorbitant price for an oft-injured starter with a 4.29 career ERA. Luzardo is also a lefty, which would give the Cubs four southpaws in the rotation. While I was able to reconcile that with Garrett Crochet due to his legit reverse splits, Luzardo’s traditional platoon numbers fall in line with what the Cubs have already.

I could see this making sense if it was a lower-level prospect or if Luzardo had a stronger track record, but giving up a top-100 prospect is a bridge too far. Oh, I almost forgot to note that the Cubs have already acquired an injury-prone lefty starter in Matthew Boyd. At least that only cost them money.

My final thought here is that we need to stop suggesting that Michael Busch could slide over to second or third if Bellinger somehow ends up remaining in Chicago. There’s a reason the Cubs moved Busch to first base, where he eventually became a Gold Glove-caliber defender. Trading Hoerner and replacing him with Busch would drastically deteriorate the defense, which isn’t a great idea with Shaw still being untested even if Mike Scioscia believes in his ability. So do I, but that’s not really the point.

The Yankees are trying to negotiate through the media by getting Jon Heyman and others to talk about how they could pivot to Pete Alonso or a number of other players, which tells me it’s just down to where the teams can agree on the money. Once that deal is done, I’d imagine Hoyer pivots to the bullpen and then sews up a few other little holes with the needle he’s threaded pretty well so far.