AP Photo/Morry Gash

Finding Trade Partner for Cody Bellinger

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterDecember 5, 2024

According to several accounts, Jed Hoyer seems resigned to trading Cody Bellinger. Though that may hurt the Cubs in the short term, the front office is probably hoping to accomplish several goals by moving the beloved outfielder.

  1. Open up an immediate pathway for one of Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara, or Alexander Canario.
  2. Increase roster flexibility.
  3. Reduce salary, though not necessarily just to save money.
  4. Acquire controllable pitchers.

First and foremost, Hoyer can trade Bellinger without drastically hurting the team. The outfielder has been worth about 6.5 wins over two seasons, but Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch are expected to compensate for that loss of production as they mature. Both conveniently play Bellinger’s best positions, though that leaves a hole in right field assuming Seiya Suzuki is Chicago’s full-time DH. One of Caissie, Alcántara, or Canario should be ready to take over in March.

Hoyer might also look at Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso in free agency, or he could buy a year of Paul Goldschmidt and hope he returns to his pre-2024 form. The 36-year-old first baseman is getting a little long in the tooth, but he is just two years removed from his MVP season.

The Cubs could use the salary earmarked for Bellinger to dip further into the pitching pool. If either is still available, one would think Max Fried or Jack Flaherty would be in play in that scenario. Hoyer has some time because teams might wait on Corbin Burnes, and the Cubs are also expected to pursue Rōki Sasaki, once he’s officially posted.

Finding a trade partner for Bellinger won’t be as difficult once Juan Soto makes a decision, something that could happen as early as this week. Soto will sign with one of the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, or Dodgers, leaving four teams to sift through the options of trading for Bellinger or signing Santander or Teoscar Hernández. The Phillies and Giants also need outfield help, and you could probably make a case for the Angels, Astros, and Mariners as well. Hoyer will probably be looking for a reliever and a high-floor prospect, and he probably wants to avoid including prospects or paying down part of Bellinger’s salary.

Let’s take a look at what might be available. I’m not going to pick one particular favorite but feel free to peruse the options and discuss your favorite(s) in the comments.

Giants

The Giants want to cut payroll so a trade involving Bellinger is a little tricky. Hoyer might have to pay down part of the outfielder’s salary or accept a contract in return, such as Hicks, who will earn $12.5 million in 2025. Doval had a down year in ’24 but would make a fine late-inning option and sometimes closer. Whisenhunt has an elite changeup but was suspended in college for using PEDs and has had some elbow issues.

Expanding the trade to include Triantos gives the Cubs a hard-throwing reliever with 33 career saves. Hicks doesn’t belong in the rotation and mitigates some of Bellinger’s salary. Triantos, who is blocked by Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw, gives San Francisco a better second base option than Thairo Estrada. Hoyer could then pivot and trade Hoerner, possibly to the Mariners.

Phillies

The Phillies need outfield help as evidenced by the 92 wRC+ of Nick Castellanos, Johan Rojas, and Brandon Marsh. Strahm is a hard-throwing lefty with a better-than-average fastball, sinker, and cutter. His strikeout rate has increased in each of the last three seasons while his walk rate has dropped. He has a downside, and that’s that he tends to give up a lot of fly balls.

Ricketts is a left-handed hitting catcher with gap-to-gap pop, an easy swing, and a great approach. He’s ranked No. 24 in Philadelphia’s system and will need to change positions to matriculate to the parent club. Ricketts is a take-charge receiver defensively with good framing skills and an electric arm, plus, he’s got the name.

Adding Bohm and Paredes doesn’t change the calculus of the trade much but will allow Hoyer to pick up an extra prospect. Bohm is a better hitter but Paredes has more power and an extra year of club control.

Astros

The Astros need help at first base and outfield so Bellinger is a natural fit. He can rotate with Jon Singleton at first and, since a package of Pressly and Ullola might not be enough, Houston can include light-hitting Jake Meyers, who would replace Mike Tauchman as Chicago’s fifth outfielder. Pressly would provide a veteran presence to Chicago’s bullpen, while Ullola, who has a 70-grade fastball but needs work on his changeup and curveball, could be groomed as the team’s future closer. That said, Pressly, who will earn $14 million this year, is a bit expensive for a mid-to-late inning reliever.

Mets

I don’t believe the Mets will chase Bellinger if they miss out on Soto but I’ll include them anyway. New York would probably prefer Santana or Hernández. Reid-Foley is a guy whose talent never matched his projection, so he’s bounced around quite a bit. He was drafted by the Blue Jays as a starter but has pitched exclusively in relief since 2020. The 29-year-old shows consistent fastball command and his four-seamer heats up as the game progresses. His slider is decent, but he could be a late-inning workhorse given his body type, which reminds me of Kyle Farnsworth.

Gilbert has all-star potential but enough flaws to keep him from reaching it. He’s just 5-foot-9 and weighs 200 pounds but can play all three outfield positions. He generates power via bat speed rather than strength and is a max-effort player in the mold of Sal Ferlise. His career arc will be somewhat similar if he gets regular at-bats, i.e., 15-20 home runs with plenty of doubles.

Red Sox

Let’s focus on the bold move. The Red Sox desperately need starting pitching, a second baseman, a first baseman, and right-handed hitters. The Cubs need to reduce payroll, increase flexibility, and provide a pathway to playing time for their top prospects. Chicago also needs a catcher and a high-WAR player. Bellinger can play first base or replace free-agent outfielder Tyler O’Neill. Hoerner is a huge upgrade over Emmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton while Brown would immediately become Boston’s best starter.

Duran is a doubles machine and stolen base threat who might hit 25 or more home runs playing for the Cubs. Criswell would replace Drew Smyly as Chicago’s swingman, and Arias gives the Cubs an insurance policy in case Jefferson Rojas has to move to outfield or third base. Teel is ready for the bigs and would be Chicago’s best catcher since Willson Contreras. He’s a much better option than Logan O’Hoppe.

Craig Breslow knows Chicago’s farm system intimately, and the Cubs and Red Sox pair well in several potential trades. I expect the two teams to consummate a deal this winter, though I admit blockbuster trades are highly unlikely.

Blue Jays

The Cubs and Blue Jays are always connected in rumor and speculation, but things rarely get done. You have to go back to 2019 for the last trade between the two teams. Then, Chicago acquired David Phelps and cash for Thomas Hatch. This is an underpay by Toronto simply because I lack the wherewithal to dive too deeply into the Blue Jays system. Additionally, bloggers who cover the Blue Jays aren’t enamored with any of Chicago’s top prospects. Ho-hum.

Yankees

Bellinger for Weaver and Warren just sounds like something Hoyer and Brian Cashman would discuss for weeks before finally pulling the trigger. I like Weaver as a reliever, and Warren has some promise, but all this trade would do is reduce salary and open up a spot in right field.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterDecember 5, 2024
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