AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

The Rundown: Hot Stove Officially Lit, Dodgers Win World Series, Braves Trade Soler to Angels

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 31, 2024

“You should never argue with a crazy mind…you oughta know by now.” – Billy Joel, Movin’ Out

The World Series is over, Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers was a magnificent beast, 26-year-old superstar Juan Soto is about to be a free agent, and a couple of handsy knuckleheads are getting much more publicity than they deserve. The Hot Stove, however, is officially lit.

With that in mind, and with the help of my Magic 8-Ball, I’ve got a baker’s dozen’s worth of opinions on how the next few months might play out.

  1. The Cubs will not sign a player to a contract worth more than the $184 million they gave Jason Heyward in 2016. Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman are expected to exceed that mark. Gerrit Cole can opt out and he’d eclipse Heyward if he does.
  2. Chicago will extend Justin Steele and sign one free-agent starting pitcher, possibly Max Fried or Jack Flaherty.
  3. If Ben Brown is healthy he will make Javier Assad expendable, and Assad will immediately become Chicago’s best trade chip.
  4. The Cardinals will blow the whole thing up by trading Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras for prospects. St. Louis already bought out Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson for $1 million apiece.
  5. The following players will be non-tendered or become pre-Winter Meetings trade candidates: Keegan Thompson, Gavin Lux, Zack Littell, Drew Rasmussen, Cal Quantrill, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell, Ty France, and David Bednar.
  6. The Mets will retain Alonso and steal Cole from the Yankees.
  7. The Dodgers will sign Soto.
  8. The Blue Jays will extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  9. The Tigers will extend Tarik Skubal.
  10. Mason Miller, Jesus Lúzardo, and Garrett Crochet will be traded before the Winter Meetings end.
  11. The Phillies will acquire Mike Trout in a trade with the Angels.
  12. MLB will see its most active offseason trade market in the last two decades.
  13. The Pirates will lock up Paul Skenes by giving him a seven-year extension worth $150 million.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Austin Capobianco, who claims he and his buddies “patrol that wall,” thinks he’s some combination of Tommy DeVito and Colonel Nathan R. Jessup. The language in the video below will get you fired so use caution.

Ball Four

The clock is ticking for Cody Bellinger, who now has five days to decide if he is staying with the Cubs or leaving. Don’t assume that salary will be earmarked for roster upgrades if the star centerfielder leaves. The Cubs would be on the hook for $27.5 million if Bellinger stays one more year and $52.5 million if he fulfills his contract. The additional funds available if he opts out would give Jed Hoyer several options, though he’s never been one to splurge recklessly.

  • Rōki Sasaki will likely be attached to a $1-2 million posting fee if he is allowed to pursue an opportunity in the United States, and the Yankees and Dodgers are rumored to be among his likeliest suitors. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted this fall, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Shohei Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017. The Cubs have $6,261,600 (as do the Yankees) but can spend up to 5% over that amount or Hoyer could add to that through trades. The Dodgers’ bonus pool is $5,146,200. Matt Mervis for bonus pool money, anyone?
  • Fried will earn a contract in the $25-$27 million AAV range.
  • Anthony Santander will likely cost a team around $23-25 million per season.
  • Signing Jurickson Profar for $44-46 million over three years would be a nice way to replace Bellinger.
  • Hoyer could (and should) use Bellinger’s savings to extend Steele.
  • If the Cubs are committed to their prospects, it might be a good idea to lock up Cade Horton, Owen Caissie, Cam Smith, Kevin Alcántara, and Matt Shaw. Voiding their arbitration years would provide financial flexibility in future free agency classes and increase their trade values. Ronald Acuña Jr. was a steal for the Braves, and Jackson Chourio is trending that way for the Brewers.

Bellinger is also a trade candidate if he decides to remain with the Cubs. That might not be a bad turn of events for Hoyer, depending on how the free agent market plays out.

Central Intelligence

Thursday Stove

Aaron Boone is expected to return to manage the Yankees next season.

Reliever Daniel Hudson officially announced his retirement minutes after the World Series ended.

Twins outfielder Alex Kirilloff announced he is retiring, too, though he is only 26 years old.

The Braves traded outfielder Jorge Soler to the Angels for righty Griffin Canning.

The White Sox announced that Will Venable will be the team’s new manager, and he’s got a lot of work to do.

The South Siders also declined their option on infielder Yoán Moncada.

Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito has exercised his 2025 player option.

MLB will experiment with a ball/strike challenge system during spring training.

Stealing Home

Something cool happens if you use Google to search MLB News.

Also, Doug Glanville dressed as himself one Halloween and nobody recognized him. Ouch.

Extra Innings

The Cubs play the Dodgers in Japan to start the 2025 season in approximately 20 weeks. Pat Hughes will be celebrating his 30th year with the organization. Shōta Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki will be going home. I’d like to see Chicago add Sasaki if the righty is posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines. That team is expected to announce a decision soon after the Japan Series, which is underway between the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

They Said It

  • “When we signed [Bellinger’s] deal in late February, we knew if he had a good year, we knew he’d have a lot of options. And he had a good year, so I think he’ll have options. Obviously he didn’t have quite the year [like] he had last year – like, last year he was an MVP candidate. I think when you look at the totality of the year he had, you know, I think he had roughly a .800 OPS on the road, and I think his home OPS was 200 points lower than last year. It was kind of how Wrigley played. So I expect him to have a lot of options.” – Hoyer
  • “For me, if I feel like I have a decision, I’ll probably wait on it, see if I still feel it, just really feel it out and trust my gut, trust people around me. It’s a privilege, so I’m going to do it with joy and see what happens.” – Bellinger

Thursday Walk-Up Song

Some New Yorkers are still held in high regard.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 31, 2024
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