Chicago Cubs Lineup

Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/18/24): Order Remains Same, Steele Returns from IL

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanSeptember 18, 2024

The Cubs are six games back with 11 to play and they don’t hold any tiebreaker advantages, so even winning out means the Mets would have to go 4-7 to lose their spot. But even with Jed Hoyer saying several weeks ago that the focus is on 2025, they’re clearly still doing everything they can to compete right now. That’s part of why they did more buying than selling at the deadline, it’s why the top prospects remain in Iowa, and it’s why Justin Steele is starting this afternoon.

Steele hasn’t made an appearance since August 27 and he’s been on the IL since the start of April with elbow tendinitis. Rather than shut him down out of precaution, the Cubs have maintained the whole time that he’d return if he was truly healthy. We have to hope that’s the case since he’s out there facing the A’s in what could be a meaningless start.

He could end up making two more starts after this, both of which figure to be more about finishing the season strong. Injury issues aside, Steele has gotten incredibly consistent results over the last three seasons since moving to the rotation full-time. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP all have deltas of 0.1 points in that time and his strikeout rate has varied by only 0.3 percentage points.

You know exactly what you’re getting with Steele, though it’s reasonable to expect a little rust. He’ll also be under stricter limitations in this one, so efficiency will be key to him going even five innings. One area in which Steele has seen an uptick over the last three seasons is his home run rate, though we’re still talking about just 0.77 HR/9. That could be challenged by an A’s team that has shown the ability to put the ball in the bleachers.

Ian Happ did the same last night with two homers to tie his career highs for home runs (25) and runs (86) while setting a new high for RBI (85). How about another dinger to reset those first two marks and a 14th steal to tie his most ever? He’s leading off ahead of a group that remains unchanged even with a lefty on the mound.

They’re facing Brady Basso, the third straight rookie starter the A’s are rolling out in the series. This is just Basso’s third career start and sixth overall MLB appearance, and his numbers appear to be quite ripe for correction. His strikeout rate is way down from the big numbers he put up in the minors and his walk rate is incredibly low, though he’s always been a strike thrower.

Basso’s 1.23 ERA isn’t sustainable even if his 2.97 FIP says he’s still pitched really well, so we’ll see how that evens out. The 26-year-old southpaw has done a very good job of keeping the ball in the park and he’s completely dominated the limited number of left-handed batters he’s faced to this point. Right-handed hitters carry a .263 average into the game, but they’ve got just a .282 OBP with one homer. Lefties are slashing .067/.125/.067 in 16 plate appearances.

Based on the repertoire alone, it’s difficult to see how he’s been so successful. Basso’s 92 mph four-seam doesn’t stand out, nor does his 76 mph curve. His cutter has very consistent location and lives on glove-side third of the zone, then this changeup stays on the arm-side third to give him a little left-right variation. It’s hard to argue with the early results, though.

Basso has not allowed an earned run in either of his two previous starts, but he faced the Tigers and White Sox in those games. Is this his real “Welcome to MLB” moment or can he find a way to extend the little run he’s on? We’ll find out soon enough, but my money is on the Cubs to give him a rude awakening.

First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee, MLB Network (out-of-market only), and 670 The Score.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanSeptember 18, 2024
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