Quantifying Hope: Cubs Open Yankees Series with 2.1% Postseason Odds
The Cubs were off yesterday, but they managed to get a slight bump in their postseason odds because the Braves lost to the Rockies last night. Yikes. Still, moving from 1.7% to 2.1% isn’t much to cheer about. Nor are the Braves the only target, as the Mets have won seven straight to move into a tie with Atlanta for the final Wild Card spot. Though there’s still time for this depressing-ass graph to hop on an elevator, things are about to get very difficult.
After a string of games against sub-.500 teams, the Cubs now welcome Anthony Rizzo and the Yankees to Wrigley for a weekend set. It’ll be the former team icon’s first trip back since he was traded to New York and he’s doing so with a team that has been far more successful than the one he left. In the regular season, at least. The Yankees have lost two in a row to fall a half-game back of the Orioles, but they’ve got a firm grasp on a playoff bid one way or the other.
Those losses don’t bode well for the Cubs, though the Yanks are 4-6 over their last 10 and aren’t a juggernaut by any means. The 35-year-old Rizzo is in the twilight of his career and isn’t likely to have his $17 million option picked up for next year following a season in which he’s battled injuries on the way to -0.6 fWAR. He also missed a big chunk of last season due to post-concussion issues that he actually played through until David Ross suggested to Rizzo that he have the team examine further.
Always known for his balance of power and contact, Rizzo has maintained a low strikeout rate despite his other struggles. However, his pop is all but gone and he’s walking less than ever as pitchers are no longer afraid to attack him in the zone. But hey, maybe he’s got one last hurrah left for the Cubs faithful this weekend. We know he’ll get a tear-jerking video tribute prior to Friday’s game and the ovation for his first at-bat — possibly all of his at-bats — will cause a delay no one can get upset about.
As unlikely as it is, there’s a part of me that thinks he could pull a Kerry Wood and just retire on the spot if he’s able to collect a hit in one of these games. If not, he could very well end up signing a one-day deal to retire as a Cub this winter. This will be the last of the welcome-backs for the 2016 core, it’s just too bad it comes in what may otherwise be a meaningless contest.
What’s really tough is that even if the Cubs manage to keep their heads above water against the Yankees, they have to turn around and fly to LA for three against the first-place Dodgers. It’s probably going to take a minimum four wins in that stretch just to keep pace with the Braves and Mets, so I’m not getting my hopes up. If nothing else, at least they gave us a little glimmer of hope and some really fun baseball in August and September after being about as exciting as a broken Slinky throughout most of the summer.