Even Wild Comeback Can’t Cover Blemish of Kyle Hendricks’ Awful Start

All’s well that ends well, but even coming back from down 10-3 on Wednesday by scoring 11 runs in the final three innings wasn’t enough to make us forget about Kyle Hendricks‘ abysmal outing. By recording only five outs, it was the shortest start of a sterling career that has nonetheless seen its share of very rough patches over the last few seasons. While he’s had five other starts with game scores lower than the 6 he generated against the Pirates, none have come since 2021 or taken place this late in the season.

That might be splitting hairs a bit since he had a -5 start against the Reds on August 10, 2019, and a 4 against the Brewers on August 12, 2021. But Hendricks had never before failed to complete two innings in a start and only once recorded fewer than five outs in any previous appearance. For what it’s worth, that came in a clean relief outing on June 6 this year against the Reds.

Perhaps most troubling are the three walks, as he’d never walked more than two batters in an appearance lasting less than three innings. His career-high for walks in a game is four, something he’s done only eight times in 265 starts. Of the 32 times he’s issued three walks, none came in less than three innings and only three came in less than four frames.

This effort marked the sixth time this season Hendricks has allowed at least six earned runs (23 in career) and the eighth time he’s surrendered at least five (35). That means 26% of his six-run games and 23% of his five-run games have come in 2024 despite his 19 starts representing just over 7% of his lifetime total. A relatively successful run in the bullpen and patches of excellence following his return to the rotation were enough to keep the hounds at bay, but it’s not easy to defend his continued use as a starter.

That’s not going to stop me from trying, sort of.

Between Jordan Wicks nearing a return, the bullpen pitching well, and the team still clinging to hopes of playoff contention, Hendricks may not even have a firm claim to a spot on the staff at all. A lot of folks have been banging that drum for a while now, with The Cub Reporter’s Arizona Phil suggesting at least weekly that Hendricks could/should be released. If it wasn’t for his track record and status as the lone remaining member of the 2016 World Series team, I have no doubt that would have happened already.

Also working in Hendricks’ favor are the long odds of earning a playoff berth. Even with their sweep of the Pirates pushing them to two games over .500 overall, going 7-3 over their last 10 has seen the Cubs drop a game to the Braves in the hunt for the last Wild Card spot. That gap of 5.5 games looks awfully large with just 28 games remaining, as even continuing at a .700 pace (20-8) means the Braves would have to go 14-15 to fall behind them. Impossible? No. Likely? Big no.

Jed Hoyer admitted a few weeks ago that the focus was on 2025, and that hasn’t changed just because the team is playing better. If anything, Hoyer’s vision for the future has become clearer as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya blossom into legitimate everyday players. For Hendricks, it means the team can allow him the dignity and respect of going out on his own terms rather than being cut loose with a month left in the season.

If the Cubs were going to part ways with The Professor, it should have happened back in June. Or maybe there’s a way to Kerry Wood him and let him get one more good effort before letting the sun set on a career that will have a much better legacy than recency bias allows. Speaking of which, there could be one last factor involved.

Though I haven’t heard mention of it, I wonder if trying to get Hendricks to 100 wins influences the thinking here. He’s at 96 now and he’s still in line for five more starts if he maintains his current role, though that would require winning more games in a month than he has all year so far. Again, not likely but still not impossible.

At this point, I’m cool with just saying “F— it” and giving Hendricks a shot to hit that round number. As much as I’ve enjoyed the Cubs’ recent stretch of good play, I don’t think they’ll be able to overtake the Braves and thus don’t have much concern for what should be a few inconsequential games. It would be a different story if the gap was smaller or if Cade Horton was healthy, but neither is the case.

Even though Hendricks is probably cooked or washed or whatever kitchen-adjacent term you prefer, there’s no harm in running him out there a few more times if he’s willing and able to do so.