Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/20/24): Javy Vs Javy as Báez Returns, Assad Starts

It’s fitting that this is a night game since the man who supplied the electricity at Wrigley Field for parts of eight seasons makes his return for the first time since the trade that sent him to the Mets three years ago. Can you believe it’s been that long since Javier Báez faced the Cubs at the Friendly Confines? The former MVP candidate has only been about 300 miles away since 2022, yet he’s fallen light years from the performance that made him a start.

Javy’s has dropped by at least 19 points in each of the last three seasons, bottoming out at 43 entering tonight’s action. That means he’s 57% worse than the average offensive producer, making his bat far too anemic for his glove to redeem. Of course, his defensive wizardry isn’t close to on par with the exploits that earned him the nickname El Mago as a Cub. His -4 defensive runs saved are the lowest of his career and his -1 outs above average represents the first time he’s been in the below zero.

Javy Báez is back at Wrigley Field! pic.twitter.com/nlLpY8YMQG

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 20, 2024

All that said, I can’t shake the sense that he’s still got something special in his bag of tricks for his former home crowd this week. A slick play in the field is most likely since his power has all but disappeared and his plate approach looks like that of a much more timid player than Cubs fans remember. His 15.9% called-strike rate is higher than in any season since 2015, but he’s also making contact on more pitches than ever and has a career-worst .218 BABIP (career average: .314).

That’s because so many of the pitches he goes after, even in the zone, are simply not conducive to solid contact. It comes back to Javy facing more sliders than ever, over 36% so far this season, an increase of over 10 points from his days in Chicago. Pitchers attack him with fastballs up before getting him to swing at sliders away, some of which draw ugly hacks. Even though his strikeouts and whiffs are down to near career-best levels, pitchers know they can beat him in the zone at this point.

Javier Assad needs to take that to heart tonight against Báez and the rest of a Tigers lineup that doesn’t have many scary hitters. He has failed to complete five innings in six of his last seven starts, largely because of elevated pitch counts and the inability to put hitters away. Assad has gotten two or fewer strikeouts in five of those outings, leaving the door wide open for opponents to burst through.

As good as the bullpen has been over the last two-plus months, it’d be great if the relievers didn’t have to pitch most of this game. Of course, that’s as much on the lineup as it is the starter. This group has a strong propensity to disappear completely, not exactly the best way to rattle off a win streak.

Since the Tigers were really late announcing their starter, the Cubs were also later than usual in releasing the lineup. As such, the card below will have to suffice because I’m pressed for time.

First pitch between these two milquetoast teams with identical 61-64 records is at 7:05pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.