Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/12/24): Hoerner Leads Off, Happ Batting Cleanup, Hendricks Starting

The Cubs come into this game as hot as they’ve been all season, winners of four in a row and six out of seven following a dominant sweep of the Orioles. Now they’re set for four games in three days to close out the first half of the season in St. Louis, but it’s going to be anything but easy. Saturday presents a real challenge with TBD starters in both halves of the doubleheader, putting that much pressure on tonight’s game.

Kyle Hendricks looked like he’d figured something out after returning to the rotation on June 19 and putting up two outstanding starts. His last two outings, however, were disastrous. With nine earned runs allowed on 11 hits and three walks to just four strikeouts over 5.2 innings, it’s hard to be optimistic about him. Add to that the fact that he left his start six days ago with back tightness and the best you can hope for is that he provides a little length.

Maybe Hendricks digs deep and finds it again, but that would be the exception rather than the rule at this point. As such, it’s incumbent on the bats to keep up the hot hitting from the last week. That starts with Nico Hoerner in the leadoff spot playing second, then it’s Michael Busch at first and Seiya Suzuki in right. Ian Happ is in left and Christopher Morel is at DH, where it seems he’ll be spending the majority of his time from here on out. Dansby Swanson is at short, Miles Mastrobuoni is at third, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.

They’re up against Sonny Gray, who has become the ace of an aging rotation with the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career. The well-traveled righty hasn’t lost much off his fastball and still sits right around 93 mph, but it’s really the variety that fuels his success. Gray throws five different pitches with a frequency of at least 16% and all of them are effective.

His four-seam leads the way at 24.2% and is the least valuable of the bunch in and of itself, though it helps to set up the slider (18.6%), cutter (18.4%), sinker (16.4%), and curve (16.3%). Only the changeup (6%) has produced negative value for Gray so far, which probably means he’ll baffle the Cubs with it tonight. It’s really tough for hitters to prepare for a guy who can throw just about anything at any time, though lefties have done pretty well this season.

They are at least 93 points better than righties across every measure of the slash line and carry a .335 wOBA, 119 points higher than their counterparts. However, all those numbers drop precipitously when Gray is pitching in St. Louis. The best strategy might be to cross your fingers and hope he has an off night.

First pitch from Busch Stadium is at 7:15pm CT on Apple TV+ and 670 The Score.

Here is tonight’s #Cubs starting lineup in St. Louis! pic.twitter.com/LWigy9LYh9

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 12, 2024