Chicago Cubs Lineup (10/4/25): Busch Leads Off, Tucker Batting Third, Boyd Bump Day
The season-long collision course between the Cubs and Brewers now comes down to at least five days, with the NLDS opening on Saturday in Milwaukee. It’s less frenetic than the Wild Card because there are days off between each of the first three guaranteed games. The only back-to-back contests would be Games 3 and 4 in Chicago, provided the latter is necessary.
There will surely be questions about whether it’s better to have momentum from playing — and winning — a series or to have gotten extra time off after the season, and I guess we’ll get answers soon enough. Based on the importance of pitching to both of these teams, I’d say the Brewers have the advantage because they’re fresher. That’s certainly the case when it comes to starters, as Matthew Boyd is going on three days’ rest after nearly setting a career-high for innings in the regular season.
He only went 4.1 innings on 58 pitches in Tuesday’s win over San Diego, though, with Craig Counsell protecting him and ensuring he could go again on short rest. Boyd was actually warming in the bullpen late in Thursday’s game, but that just ended up serving as a side session. He’s going to need to be on his game this afternoon as he faces the Brewers for the third time in 2025.
The first two outings went pretty poorly, with the first kicking off a stretch of 11 starts in which Boyd posted a 5.16 ERA with 58 hits allowed and just 46 strikeouts over 61 innings. In those two games against the Brewers, one each in Milwaukee and Chicago, Boyd gave up nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks while striking out only five batters. That is not going to get it done today.
Of course, he ended up earning a win in the latter of those contests because the Cubs jumped ahead 5-0 after three innings and tacked on an insurance run after Boyd departed. After scoring only six total runs against San Diego, scoring half a dozen in a single game would feel like an explosion.
Michael Busch is more than capable of setting off some fireworks as he bats and plays first, then it’s Nico Hoerner at second, and Kyle Tucker at DH. Seiya Suzuki cleans up in right, Ian Happ is in left, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Dansby Swanson is at short and Matt Shaw rounds things out at third base.
On the bump for the Brew Crew is righty Freddy Peralta, who I am always shocked to find is much younger than I think he should be. For some reason, I always assume he’s at least in his mid-30s even though he just turned 29 in June. Maybe it’s because he’s been with the Brewers for eight seasons now, most of which have been excellent. He’s a strikeout machine whose only real weaknesses are walks and fly balls, but that’s more than enough for the Cubs to take advantage of.
Not that they’ve had much luck doing so in the past, as evidenced by Peralta’s 9-3 record with a .167 batting average against in 22 games. The walks are evident in his .284 OBP allowed, which seems very low until you consider it’s 117 points above the batting average. To wit, he’s walked 10 Cubs batters in four games this season. He’s also struck out 20, but that’s less than expected over 20 innings pitched. Just as he tends to do in general, Peralta has not been consistent against his rivals.
Here are his earned runs from those four starts: 0, 3, 5, 0. While he could pitch lights-out, it’s just as possible that he sprays the ball around and hangs a few meatballs. That’s far more likely to happen as the game goes along, as his strikeout rate drops off precipitously while his walk rate climbs quickly the second and third times through the order. Pat Murphy may not let that happen, so the Cubs need to be prepared to jump on any early mistakes.
That won’t be easy against a guy with plus stuff across the board, especially someone like Peralta who is comfortable throwing almost every pitch to any batter. The slider is the exception there because he rarely throws it to lefties, but his fastball, change, and curve are good enough to keep his splits nearly even. The brightest ray of hope here may be Peralta’s previous postseason results.
The righty is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA across five games, three of which were starts, and the Brewers lost all five times. Opposing teams only scored a total of 13 runs, however, so it’s not like we’re looking at a dude who’s fallen apart or anything. This is a big one and bragging rights are not the biggest prize, so it’s time for the Cubs’ bats to wake up.
First pitch is at 1:08pm CT on TBS, HBO Max, and 670 The Score.
