Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/23/25): Busch Leads Off, Castro at 3B, Horton Starting

The Cubs jumped out to a series lead thanks to just enough offense, including solo homers from two players who hadn’t previously gone yard in August. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong getting back to anything resembling their old selves would be huge for an offense that continues to slog through games. Their win yesterday marked the 13th time in 21 games this month that the Cubs have scored three or fewer runs. Friday was only their third win in that sample, none of which came against teams with winning records.

Where would the Cubs be without an MLB-best 2.92 ERA in August that is fueled by a sterling 2.53 mark from the starters? That collective performance has been just barely good enough to mask the putrescent offensive output of 2.95 runs per game, nearly a full run worse than any other team in MLB. The Cubs have scored 10 fewer runs than the Rays despite playing one more game in August. Not great, Bob.

At the risk of making this about the manager and placing too much emphasis on day-to-day lineup construction, it has felt as though Craig Counsell’s stubborn adherence to “The Book” bears some of the blame for this stagnation. Last night was one of many examples in which the manager stuck with handedness rather than actual results, going with right-handed hitters in five of the top six spots and seven overall against a dude who’s been far worse against lefties.

And wouldn’t you know it, the decidedly mid Tyler Anderson held them to two runs on three hits. Two of the hits did come from righties, but Tucker’s 1st-inning shot was the biggest by far. I am probably making too big a deal out of this because it’s become a pet peeve, but we’ve gotten past the point where it’s just coincidental or superfluous. Even when they’re winning, the Cubs aren’t scoring enough runs.

They haven’t had to in most of Cade Horton’s recent starts, as he’s allowed only two earned runs over his last six outings. However, the most recent of those saw him leave before completing the 3rd inning due to a blister issue. He was clearly struggling with it and we have to hope it’s been completely mitigated, which has to be the case for him to be back out there. A lot of us figured the Cubs would use it as a way to place him on the IL and limit his innings, but that clearly isn’t the case. Yet.

If Horton can go six innings tonight, which is possible if he’s very efficient, he’ll tie his total innings from his first two pro seasons combined. Working quickly typically means getting outs via contact, but Horton has shown the ability to get strikeouts without running up a high pitch count. More of that tonight would be nice.

Michael Busch leads off at first base tonight, then it’s Kyle Tucker in right and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Pete Crow-Armstrong cleans up in center, Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Matt Shaw Willi Castro is at third. Dansby Swanson is at short and Reese McGuire bats ninth behind the plate.

Their opponent is 24-year-old righty Victor Mederos, who is making just the third start of his MLB career after nine relief appearances over the last three seasons. The biggest thing that jumps out when you look at his stats is an alarming walk rate, and that’s been the case throughout his career. He has walked 141 batters over 315 minor-league innings and 19 in just over 21 innings in the bigs. He’s also given up a lot of homers, which magnifies the free passes.

If I asked you to guess how a guy with those numbers had gotten to the bigs so quickly, you’d probably assume he’s put up huge strikeout numbers with a triple-digit fastball and/or a wipeout breaking ball. That’s what I thought, anyway. But Mederos sits around 95 with the heater and doesn’t get outstanding results with either his 89 mph slider or 82 mph sweeper. His 88 mph changeup is seldom used and hasn’t done well this year.

So how has a guy with pretty unremarkable stuff made it to the majors at all, let alone multiple times over the last three seasons? I chalk it up to the Angels being uber-aggressive with their draft picks, particularly those out of college. Shortstop Zach Neto was one of the first, if not the first, members of his draft class to be promoted, debuting in April of 2023 after being selected the previous summer.

Hard-throwing reliever Ben Joyce was taken two rounds after Neto and came up to Anaheim a month after the shortstop. There are other examples, but there’s no need to belabor the point. Mederos probably wouldn’t be a big leaguer with most other orgs, but maybe the rapid rise will do him well in the end.

After looking at Anderson’s unique profile ahead of last night’s game, we’ve got another one the likes of which I’ve never seen before. Coming from a low three-quarter slot, Mederos’s pitches have the most consistent induced vertical break of anyone I’ve ever reviewed. Less than two inches separate the change (6.3) from the sweeper (8.1), which makes his lack of consistency all the more strange.

It’s clear from the chart above that Mederos is an east-west guy, generally riding the sinker and change to the arm side while throwing his breaking balls to the glove side. His problem is that he sprays his pitches all over the place and often ends up hanging them over the plate for hard contact. You might think that he’d be able to tunnel them well, and maybe he’ll get there, but having everything in pretty much the same plane makes it very easy for hitters to discern spin.

That’s why Mederos is near the bottom of the league in walks, strikeouts, and chase rate. You’ve pretty much got a 50/50 chance at seeing either fastball or a breaking ball variation, with righties getting more sliders and lefties more sweepers. The changeup is a wild card that is only thrown to lefties, so that could be the secret to him figuring something out.

It should be noted that we’re only talking about 13 MLB innings this season and barely over 21 in total, so it’s very possible the Cubs will see a different pitcher from what the stats show. But if the stats hold, we’re talking about a guy who’s given up a .395/.472/.605 slash line to right-handed hitters. Lefties aren’t all that far behind despite a .231 batting average, but, again, that could all change quickly with just one big start.

Barring that sudden revelation happening tonight, the Cubs should be able to build on their win and maybe even score a little more in the process. First pitch is once again at 8:38pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.