Quantifying Hope: Cubs Take Slight Dip, Still Over 96% Playoff Odds
The Cubs have now dumped three straight series after losing 2-1 (in two ways) to the Blue Jays, and they are just three days away from a five-game set against the Brewers. Even if the Cubs sweep the Pirates and Milwaukee drops three to the Reds, the Cubs would have to take all five games just to get back into a tie for the division lead. Does anyone out there believe that’s even remotely possible?
It certainly isn’t with the way the offense is playing. The Cubs have scored just 88 runs over 24 games in the second half, better than only the Cardinals (79 in 25). Scoring only 3.67 runs per game won’t get you too many wins, and it’s even harder to win when you only score once. That was the case on Thursday, as a Michael Busch home run represented their only offense.
“That loss is on me, right there,” Matthew Boyd said after allowing two runs on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homer. “We went up against a Hall of Famer tonight and he threw his ass off. Our guys competed all day in the box and it’s unfortunate, but it comes down to that one pitch there.”
Look, I know Boyd has to be the bigger man and take one for the team or whatever, but it’s utter bullshit that the loss was on him. Dude held one of the best teams in the game to two runs, which should be enough to win even with the Cubs’ shoddy offense. How about when they had men on second and third with no outs and proceeded to strike out swinging three times to end the threat?
How about Kyle Tucker seemingly playing through injury and spiraling from a production standpoint? There’s an inflection point in his performance on June 1, when he hurt his finger on an awkward slide into second base, but he’s taken steps downward in the second half and again in August. Entering play on Friday, he’s slashing .150/.227/.150 with a 13 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances this month.
If the Cubs choose to keep him off the IL, Owen Caissie needs to be getting a lot of run in right just to give Tucker a mental break.
Despite their poor play of late, the Cubs remain in very strong playoff position because no one else is pushing their way up from the bottom. The Dodgers have lost four in a row, the Mets are a mess, and even the surging Reds are still far enough back that they can’t be taken seriously…yet.
There’s no use worrying about the Brewers at this point, but the Cubs need to figure out a way to get their own house in order soon. A team that appeared to be playing free and easy early in the season has gotten visibly tight and frustrated. Maybe getting back to Wrigley and playing a team that isn’t built to win will help. Or the Cubs will struggle and it’ll make things worse.
I would just like to watch more than one game that doesn’t piss me off. Is that too much to ask?
