The Rundown: Cubs Suffer Royal Beat Down, Top Prospects Rarely Traded at Deadline, Brewers Take NL Central Lead

“Must I forever be a beggar whose golden dreams will not come true? Or will I go from rags to riches? My fate is up to you.” – Rags to Riches by Tony Bennett

One of my favorite lines in the movie Goodfellas aptly describes last night’s fiasco against the Royals:

“Every once in a while, I’d have to take a beating. But by then, I didn’t care. The way I saw it, everybody takes a beating sometime.” – Henry Hill

A loss is a loss, and it doesn’t matter by how many runs once the season ends. It’s simply one mark on the debit side of your won-loss ledger. So we move on and dig into the trade gossip, because at least that encourages healthy debate, except maybe when deciding the potentiality of trading Owen Caissie.

Baseball America dropped an interesting article on Monday, and it’s available to non-subscribers, too, which is always a delightful treat. According to BA, we might want to pump the brakes on trading the star outfield prospect. I’ll provide some interesting tidbits:

• No top-100 prospects were traded in 2024.
• The highest-ranked prospect traded in 2023 was Kyle Manzardo (No. 72).
• Going back to 2014, only three top-100 prospects that were traded have averaged at least 2.0 WAR per MLB season. Those players are Dylan Cease, Gleyber Torres, and Zac Gallen. The jury is still out on recently traded rising stars like Logan O’Hoppe, CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Spencer Steer.
• The last top 10 prospect traded was Eloy Jiménez in 2017.
• The Cubs have traded three top-100 prospects since 2014 — Torres for Aroldis Chapman and Cease and Jiménez for José Quintana — and they’ve acquired one: Addison Russell.
• The Dodgers (7) and Padres (5) have given up more top-100 prospects since 2014 than any other teams.
• It appears that most teams that gave up prospects won those trades, though the Cubs are a split. Acquiring Chapman helped Chicago win a World Series, but Quintana was worth a pedestrian 3.6 WAR in four seasons on the North Side.

Prospects are far more valuable today than they were 20-25 years ago because of the exorbitant cost to acquire premium players in free agency. The Cubs are facing that type of dilemma with pending free agent Kyle Tucker, which makes Caissie and Kevin Alcántara difficult to trade, especially when considering the players heavily linked to Chicago. Giving up top prospects for Gallen or Sandy Alcántara makes no sense. Incidentally, Gallen had another subpar outing last night.

More alarming is the fact that prospect fatigue has lowered the expectations of some of the team’s best young players. A panic factor comes into play, too. Many fans want to win so badly that they mentally place higher values on players being made available. That helps us delay processing any rip jobs until the disappointment of future years kicks our asses.

Most front offices will be looking to steal players with loud tools from the lower levels of the minor leagues, which is how Jed Hoyer acquired Caissie, Alcántara, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Savvy front offices who want potential studs outside of the top 100 may look to poach Fernando Cruz, for example. Teams looking for pitching additions will probably favor other systems because Jaxon Wiggins and Brandon Birdsell aren’t potential top of rotation power arms.

Hoyer’s reluctance to trade his top prospects may leave some fans disappointed once the calendar turns to August. Be glad that he’s unwilling to overpay for rentals or, even worse, mediocrity. Caissie, Alcantara, Moisés Ballesteros, and Jefferson Rojas should remain with the Cubs unless Hoyer can find young, cost-controlled pitching, and ultimately, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Orioles fans may feel shortchanged when prospect hauls fall short of any perceived expectations. Those Godfather deals rarely materialize when trading players with eight weeks of remaining club control.

Cubs News & Notes

• Crow-Armstrong has a bruised knee and did not play yesterday.
• Jim Bowden of The Athletic said Hoyer is one of six executives on the hot seat ($) and that he and Carter Hawkins must improve the club to keep their jobs.
• The Cubs and Yankees are the most likely teams to acquire Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks, according to ESPN analysts Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel. The Brewers and Mariners have better pitching to offer, so tread lightly. Seth Lugo has an 80% chance of being traded per Passan and McDaniel, and Chicago is listed as the favorite there, too. The Cubs are also listed as the favorites to land Kris Bubic if the Royals trade him, and Mitch Keller is linked to the North Siders by the duo, too.
• FanSided’s Quinn Everts recently suggested the Cubs could look to swing a blockbuster trade for superstar closer Mason Miller of the Athletics. Wiggins would be Chicago’s centerpiece in that deal.
• Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon is also linked to the Cubs, who would platoon him with Matt Shaw depending on pitching matchups.
• It sounds like Brown understands he was being showcased last night. He failed miserably if he was the bait to land Lugo or Bubic.
• Brown has allowed five or more runs six times this season.
• Seiya Suzuki was called out on a pitch clock violation in Monday’s game.
• Royals catcher Salvador Perez called two young Cubs fans onto the field after last night’s game and autographed his bats for them.
• Kansas City is recalling 45-year-old veteran Rich Hill to start against the Cubs tonight. According to ESPN Research, Hill will tie Edwin Jackson for the most franchises played for in MLB history at 14. He will also be the first pitcher age 45 or older to appear in a game since Bartolo Colón in 2018.

Ball Four

If this is an answer I had to give, I’d go Mike Ditka-ballistic on reporters. By the way, Jon Berti gets my vote for the Cy Young award. Three outs on five pitches? I hope Brown was paying attention.

"We just gave up too many runs."

Craig Counsell on tonight's loss. pic.twitter.com/u8vr7OJLLn

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 22, 2025

Just for Grits and Shins

“Salesman takes a customer trade-in on an older car with a salvage title and 20 minutes later, said customer buys the same vehicle back…at a markup.”

Isaac Paredes on an open buyback, anyone?

Central Intelligence

• Milwaukee (60-40): The Brewers have won 11 straight and now have sole possession of first place in the NL Central.
• St. Louis (52-49): The Cardinals prefer to reset their roster rather than rebuild, and that’s how they’ll navigate the trade deadline.
• Cincinnati (52-49): The Reds have signaled to all front offices that they’ll definitely be buyers.
• Pittsburgh (40-61): The Pirates will likely trade Keller, Andrew Heaney, David Bednar, and Dennis Santana. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are reportedly available, too, but Paul Skenes isn’t going anywhere. Pittsburgh intends to rebuild its roster around Skenes.

How About That!

The Red Sox are scouting Gallen and Merrill Kelly this week.

The Phillies beat Boston 3-2 last night when Brandon Marsh scored on a catcher’s interference call against Carlos Narváez with the bases loaded and no outs. It was just the second time since 1920 that a major league game ended on a catcher’s interference call. The other was in 1971, when the Dodgers beat the Reds after Johnny Bench was ruled to have interfered on an attempted straight steal of home.

The Brewers are one of three teams to go 6-0 or better against the Dodgers in a single season. The 1994 Braves and 2006 Cardinals also swept Los Angeles.

The George Webb chain in Milwaukee will give out free burgers if the Brewers win tonight’s game against the Mariners.

Umpire Chad Whitson ejected Justin Verlander from Sunday’s game in brutal fashion.

Orioles reliever Corbin Martin left Monday’s game against the Guardians with a unique stat line: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R/1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, and 1 balk.

Extra Innings

“Take your Suárez rumors and stick them where the sun don’t shine.” – Shaw, probably

Matt Shaw since the All-Star break:
5/8
2 HR
4 RBIs
11 total basespic.twitter.com/zKcJjqVBkU

— Jacob Zanolla (@jacobzanolla) July 22, 2025

They Said It

• “I’ve got to start helping the team win. I’ve kind of been a non-contributor when things like (this) happen. It’s unfortunate, so whatever opportunity is ahead of me, I’ve got to be better to earn that.” – Brown
• “Ben’s got to execute better. It’s as simple as that. It’s largely a two-pitch mix, and there’s obviously the changeup in there. But I think when you’re talking about pitch mixes like that, then your execution has to be at a pretty good level at this level. I understand the calendar is shorter. Our available-starter situation isn’t completely full right now. Obviously, things could change. But right now, [Brown is] going to pitch in bulk or length.” – Counsell
• “Hoyer and his GM, Carter Hawkins, are signed through the 2025 season, and both deserve contract extensions for the great job they’ve done in hiring manager Craig Counsell and rebuilding the Cubs’ roster into a legitimate World Series contender. They’ve also excelled in building a strong farm system. However, if ownership hasn’t extended their contracts by now, there’s pressure on both to keep adding at the deadline to get this team over the top.” – Bowden

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

Today is a new day, so let’s just put yesterday’s loss behind us.