Pete Crow-Armstrong at Wrigley Field
AP Photo/Erin Hooley

The Rundown: Good, Bad and Ugly of Cubs’ Hot Start, Schedule Eases Up, PCA Surging, Rockies Historically Bad

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterApril 28, 2025

The Cubs played well while I was out of the country, but lost two straight to the Phillies once I returned home. Perhaps I should go back to Punta Cana, and I’d bet many fans might want to finance that expedition just to get the team back to stacking wins. I had a great time, and the Cubs are still in first place, so it’s probably a good time to define the good, the bad, and the ugly after one month of baseball.

The Good

Chicago’s offense has been much better than expected thanks to Kyle Tucker (176 OPS+), Pete Crow-Armstrong (140), Carson Kelly (285), Michael Busch (163), and Seiya Suzuki (148). Sure, Suzuki is dealing with nagging injuries, but I’d rather he have a game or two off a week to avoid his annual midseason slump. Crow-Armstrong and Kelly have been big surprises, and Busch has avoided the regression nearly every analyst predicted, at least so far. I don’t know if Tucker will forego free agency and sign an extension, but Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts need to do everything possible to convince him to stay, even if it means paying the star outfielder an uncomfortable amount of money.

Kelly and Miguel Amaya give the Cubs baseball’s best catching tandem through a month of games. The duo is hitting a combined .307 with eight bombs and 32 RBI. Kelly has an insane 15 walks in 58 plate appearances, the league’s fourth-lowest chase rate, and is churning toward his best season since 2019.

Colin Rea may be the most boring pitcher in baseball, but he’s been Chicago’s most consistent starter since filling in for Justin Steele. Rea has faced 76 batters, and he walked just three of them. He also leads the rotation with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

The bullpen has been worth about 0.5 wins so far this season. That’s not fantastic, but it’s much better than last April. I’ll save the best for last, however: The Cubs won 17 of 29 games during a gauntlet of a schedule that included games against the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Rangers. The Pirates come to town tomorrow for what has all the earmarks of a trap series.

The Bad

Losing Steele to injury is a big blow to Chicago’s postseason chances and leaves the team without an ace. Matt Shaw was demoted to Triple-A Iowa, and Gage Workman lost all of the magic and then some that he carried into the season from spring training.

I’ve said previously that Shaw’s performance would be the determining factor of the trade that sent Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski to the Astros for Tucker. Despite Shaw’s struggles, the trade is a huge short-term win for the Cubs. That said, the Cubs need a third baseman who can produce at the big league level. Shaw still should be that guy, but if he isn’t, Hoyer has big holes at the front of his rotation and the hot corner.

Steele’s injury isn’t the only issue with Chicago’s rotation. A peek behind the curtain reveals an unsightly FIP attached to Shōta Imanaga (5.20). Ben Brown (4.16) has been more unlucky than bad but needs to pitch better. His command comes and goes too often to make him a dependable starter, and it appears Craig Counsell is losing confidence in the hard-throwing righty.

The Cubs do not have a playoff-worthy rotation right now, though there is still plenty of time to turn that around. The organization may be tempted to promote Cade Horton, but his innings will be monitored heavily, so he is probably a better option later in the year. I’d chase Framber Valdez if I were Hoyer, who probably regrets passing on Jesús Luzardo right about now.

The Ugly

Nate Pearson has been a disaster, so has Eli Morgan, and Ryan Brasier has only pitched one inning. Counsell needed 50-55 frames from each of the veteran relievers this season, and that now seems impossible. Hoyer always seems to find the right in-season bullpen additions, but it’s unfair to ask the executive to discover 150-165 innings on the waiver wire this year. The Cubs are too good to risk losing games because of limited bullpen options.

Speaking of disasters, Dansby Swanson and Justin Turner are much too far into the season to be hitting below .200. Swanson isn’t going anywhere, though it is fair to wonder if the Cubs can continue to roster Turner.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

I’d have a chip on my shoulder if I were traded to the White Sox, so I can understand why Workman has revenge on his mind. The only thing the young infielder should be concerned with is learning to hit big league pitching and to cleanly field his position.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Tyler Glasnow is dealing with shoulder discomfort, and a stint on the IL is a definite possibility.

The $476 million Dodgers will face the $69 million Marlins next, the biggest payroll gap between two opponents in baseball history.

New MLB Chief Marketing Officer Uzma Rawn Dowler said the league has incredible fan appeal this season. From viewership to attendance to engagement, all numbers are trending upward.

The Rockies broke a 55-week streak held by the White Sox as the worst team in baseball per the latest USA Today power rankings.

Colorado is on pace to break the South Siders’ 2024 record for most losses in a single season.

Sunday’s Three Stars

  1. Tarik Skubal – The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner blanked the Orioles over six innings with 11 strikeouts against zero walks.
  2. Ceddanne Rafaela – The Boston centerfielder plated five runners on a 2-for-4 day, including a home run as the Red Sox trounced the Guardians 13-3.
  3. Heliot Ramos – Name something crazier than a walk-off Little League homer on a semi-routine grounder to the pitcher?

Honorable Mention: Javier Báez is batting .301 this season and has five multi-hit games, though he’s slugging just .370. He’s shortened his swing considerably and changed his approach, so he’s not chasing out of the zone as much. The ex-Cub has also moved from shortstop to centerfield this season. I’ll always root for Báez, who was one of the more memorable Cubs players of my lifetime.

Extra Innings

Who has been Chicago’s MVP through a month of baseball? Tucker is the logical choice, and Kelly deserves some votes, too, but I’ll take PCA.

They Said It

  • “Grateful for my time with the Cubs and good people over there. But now I’m with the White Sox and I’m excited to be here and now I want to beat the Cubs.” – Workman
  • “The fact that we came out of the gate hot and played really good teams well is great. I also think we have a bit of a target on our backs. We’re the Chicago Cubs. Teams like it when we come to town; they want to beat us. This is no time to step off the gas.” – Jameson Taillon
  • “We need better [by Brown], frankly. There have been some bright spots, and there are clearly some good things there. But [three or] four innings? Fortunately, we’ve had off-days – but during the course of a normal part of [a season], that’s going to hurt you.” – Counsell

Monday Walk-Up Song

Off topic, but this weekend the Bears signed an undrafted free agent from Texas named JP Richardson. I can’t help myself.

 

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterApril 28, 2025
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