Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/18/25): Happ Leads Off, Bruján at 3B, Rea Making Second Start

Folks, we are about to embark upon a stretch of eight Cubs home games with start times no later than 6:40pm CT. Five of those are afternoon affairs, starting with three against the Diamondbacks. Even better, the Cubs won’t have another late West Coast first pitch until August 22, when they head to Anaheim. With temps rising into the mid-70s and the wind blowing out at 15 mph, this could be a fun one.

On the bump for the home team is righty Colin Rea, who I’m a little surprised to see out there given they’ve got off days between each of their next three series and could run four starters on regular rest or more. Rea has looked really good so far, though, and keeping him in the rotation allows Craig Counsell a little more breathing room. Or at least that’s the hope.

Jordan Wicks is being recalled, ostensibly to serve as a long reliever in case Rea or Ben Brown can’t go deep in their starts. That could be the case if Rea continues to give up contact in the air at a high rate. He’s surrendered some hard contact as well, and fly balls making it into that gale probably aren’t falling shy of the track. But hey, he looked great working the corners with bigger velo than we expected the last time out.

Rea’s four-seam was up to 94.4 in his first start against the Dodgers, even touching 96 a few times. I like the idea of him letting it eat again this afternoon knowing Wicks is there as a safety net. Starting the homestand with a win would be huge since the Cubs have the Dodgers again after this before welcoming the Phillies to town.

The best bet is to ensure Rea doesn’t have to pitch well at all, so Ian Happ starting the climb back to his career averages would be nice. Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, and Michael Busch cleans up at first. Dansby Swanson is the shortstop, Nico Hoerner is at second, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, and Carson Kelly handles the catching. Vidal Bruján gets his first start at third base as the revolving door at the hot corner spins.

They missed former division rival Corbin Burnes back in Arizona, but no such luck this time. Or maybe this is a good thing, as the ace looks to be following in the footsteps of other big-money acquisitions Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Montgomery. It’s still very early and Burnes could certainly bounce back this season and beyond, but the early results are confirming all the red flags I saw when warning the Cubs to stay far away from him in free agency.

Not that those concerns really mattered when it was obvious Tom Ricketts wouldn’t wave a green flag at one of the top free agent pitchers on the market.

Burnes’ strikeout rate has plummeted since his big breakout in 2021, falling from 36.7% to just 20.3% so far this season. And lest you think that’s just a fluke, it’s dropped pretty significantly in each of the last five seasons. What’s more, his walk rate has gone up as well; though it dipped back down to 6.1% last year, he’s at 13% through three starts. Burnes has also given up three homers with a 21.4% home run-per-fly ball rate that is among the 20 highest in MLB.

The big culprit appears to be the cutter that made him into an ace, as its value has eroded to the point that it’s got negative value right now. Again, that could change in a hurry, but he’s throwing it slower than ever at 94.1 mph and its 61.1% usage is higher than ever. He’s getting about the same vertical movement on the cutter as in his best seasons, but there’s more than an inch less horizontal movement.

His curve, slider, and sinker have also produced negative value, leaving only the changeup as a plus pitch to this point. And he only throws the offspeed pitch 11% of the time, exclusively to lefties. The slider and sinker are only thrown to righties, the curve is very heavily weighted to lefties, and the cutter is also mainly a lefty weapon. Some of that is the matchups, as he was more balanced with the cutter and curve last season.

The predictability and lack of cutter effectiveness help to explain why Burnes is pitching to massive reverse splits so far after being platoon-neutral for his career. Right-handed hitters have crushed him so far, perhaps because that cutter isn’t tracking far enough from their barrels. Having an extra inch-plus of cut could be the difference between squaring the ball up or fouling it off, or between a foul and a whiff.

Facing the 2025 version of Burnes would be a great way to open up the homestand, but he could just as easily revert back to the guy who commanded a $210 million contract. Then again, his past results against these Cubs hitters haven’t been great. Over 109 combined at-bats, the Cubs have a .303/.356/.505 slash with five homers against Burnes. That includes a .600 average and 1.569 OPS from Swanson, who could really use a get-right game to turn his luck around.

First pitch from Wrigley is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Friday. 1:20. @ofcwrigleyfield. #BeHereForIt

Watch it live on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/Pejh7EcD6e

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 18, 2025